Chips and DIPS

DIPS, or Defense Independent Pitching Statistics is one of the most accurate statistics that can be used to determine how well a pitcher has pitched, independent from his defense behind him. After all, most of a pitcher's ERA is determined by his walk rate, strikeout rate, and ability to prevent homeruns. So, what kind of plays involve a defense in the first place? 1. Any ground ball in play. 2. Any fly ball that is not a homerun. So then, what does DIPS look at? The four statistics that are controlled entirely by a pitcher, even if there was not one fielder behind him. And they are: 1. homeruns 2. strikeouts 3. walks 4. hit batters. Those plays are under only the pitcher's control in the sense that fielders have no effect on their outcome.

Taking a closer look into DIPS, we can analyze a pitcher's ability level. The stats we are looking at won't be effected even if one pitcher's shortstop is Ozzie Smith and another's is David Ortiz. Defense-dependent statistics, such as the rate of hits allowed on balls put into play (other than home runs), are almost entirely the result of luck and the skills of the defensive players on the field. Today we take away those infielders and look at which pitchers have the best ability.

There were 10 pitchers who had a DIPS era below 3.50 in 2006. Johan Santana led the way with a low of 3.05. There was a big jump to Brandon Webb and Jeremy Bonderman at 3.22 and 3.25 respectively. This shows why Santana is in a class of his own. Here are the rest:

4. C.C. Sabathia -- 3.30
5. Roy Oswalt -- 3.31
6. Jake Peavy -- 3.33
7. John Lackey -- 3.38
8. John Smoltz -- 3.41
9. Chris Carpenter -- 3.43
10. Mike Mussina -- 3.48

These 10 pitchers kept their HR rates down, K rates high, and didn't walk or hit that many batters. Pound for pound these were the best 10 pitchers in baseball last year. Of these 10, only Peavy and Bonderman had era's over 4.00. However, both of them were effected negatively by their defense for they both had component era's around the 3.50 range. I expect both of them to bounceback this year and to solidify themselves as top 5 fantasy pitchers. Mussina and Smoltz will be interesting to follow this year. They both had fantastic years where their age usually indicates a decline. I would expect, at best, a repeat from both. It is more likely to see a slight decline. Oswalt and Carpenter speak for themselves as they have been solid for the past few years. The three remaining are Webb, C.C. and Lackey. Webb is one of the first 5 pitchers taken in drafts this year. C.C. and Lackey could be had in rounds 7-9, which is about 4 rounds later than Webb. You could get some nice value by drafting either of them. C.C. in particular was shafted by his run support and bullpen and could approach 20 wins this year if healthy.

Take 5

Here is a list of 5 pitchers whose DIPS era was a lot higher than their normal era. These guys could be overvalued on draft day due to inflated stats:

Chris Young - Had an era of 3.46, but DIPS was 4.50. Ouch. Lucky guy. Avoid.
Justin Verlander - 3.63 era, but 4.37 DIPS. You know I hate this guy. Let someone else pay for him.
Nate Robertson and Kenny Rogers What is up with the Tigers and their luck? At least they didn't win the World Series too. 3 of the top 10 pitchers with the highest DIPS differential are from the tigers. Stay away from this team. I predict them finishing 4th in the AL central.
Barry Zito - He was 2nd to Young as his 4.87 DIPS era was masked by his 3.83 era. Over a run different. If you read my earlier articles, Zito also had a component era of 4.51. If he wasn't changing leagues I would completely avoid him altogether. Since he will be entering the NL, facing a pitcher 1/9th of the time and having Omar Vizquel at short, he could be fine.

And here is a list of 5 guys to watch in 2007 because their true ability might be hidden behind deflated stats:

Javier Vazquez - 4.84 era but 3.80 DIPS. He also had a low component era. Get him on the cheap and expect him to start game one of the playoffs for the White Sox.
Jeremy Bonderman - one positive thing going for the Tigers. Looks like Verlander, Rogers, and Robertson stole all of the luck that went around MoTown last year. Expect Bonderman to get some love next year. His 4.08 era, according to DIPS, should have been 3.25.
Felix Hernandez - We expected great things from him and it didn't happen. He had almost a K per inning and his era was 4.52. His component era was 4.13 and his DIPS era was 3.85. Expect an era well under 4.00 this year. He's also lost some weight.
Kevin Milwood - Ok, so he pitches in Arlington. Get him cheap and just start him when he pitches on the road. His era was over a full run lower on the road, a respectable 3.74. He also sports a DIPS era of 3.83. Notice how that is much closer to his road era than his overall era of 4.52. He could be a nice filler to the back of your rotation.
Jake Peavy My last chance to suggest he should be #2 behind Johan. 4.09 era. 3.53 component era. 3.33 DIPS era. Led MLB in k/9 and led MLB with the most tough-luck losses in the majors. I will write an article on tough-luck losers soon. But 7 times this year, his tossed a QS, only to still get the loss.