Secondary Average was looked at for last year's players here. A player's secondary average is, according to ESPN, a way to look at a player's extra bases gained, independent of Batting Average. The formula is (TB - H + BB + SB - CS) / AB. I showed that a player's SecA is a great indicator for the runs scored category. Let's take a look at some player's who have a high SecA so far this season and see if they are scoring lots of runs.
Alex Rodriguez has a ridiculous 26 runs so far. The high for a normal season right about now should be around 20. Reyes and Hanley have 21, followed by Rollins at 20. Just to give you an idea of what a player who scores many runs should have.
Jim Thome His SecA is a whopping .840! He only has scored 12 times but remember this guy is very slow on the base paths and won't necessarily score from second on a single. He won't go from first to third either. Take away the SB-CS portion for Thome and he is walking 1 out of every 3 times he gets up to bat. He's still got it in him. If healthy, expect another strong year.
Barry Bonds His .717 SecA is 3rd in the majors. He has 11 BB and 12 runs but as usual is on pace for less than 500 AB.
Grady Sizemore 4th in the majors with a .643 SecA. A perfect example of how SecA works. He is only batting .250 on the year. 4 SB and 16 walks have led to his 18 runs. That places him 5th in runs. With a .250 avg., it's Grady's Secondary Average that is helping his fantasy value at the moment.
Ian Kinsler A SecA of .600 bodes well. 14 runs is pretty good considering he bats 7th. He has 7 HR, 16 RBI, and has stolen 3 bags without being caught. He could keep this up. I'd still trade him for Furcal right now though.
Rickie Weeks 17th in SecA at .486. He is tied for 5th in runs scored with 18 but is batting .243. Another player helped by 10 walks and 4 SB. Looking at his average alone you won't be able to predict that he will score many runs. His SecA tells us the opposite. Buy low.
Kelly Johnson My boy. Hopefully you have him in your league as a 20th+ round starting 2b like I have in all 4 of my leagues. He is tied for 12th with 15 runs and is batting .292. 14 BB and 2 SB have given him a rank of 14th in SecA at .492. He is getting on base and doing a good job of scoring runs. Acquire him before his owner realizes how good he might be this year.
Some other players with high SecA's are Arod, Chipper, Hanley, Reyes, Howard, Ortiz and Swisher. Those guys you don't need to worry about for they are all around players. Some under-the-radar type guys who might come on the cheap and help your team out in runs include Iguchi, Millar, Dmitri Young, Upton, Hardy, DeRosa, Hill, Church, and Mora.
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
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