There are many clubs in baseball. We have the 3,000 club where its newest member, Craig Biggio, reached 3,000 hits just a year ago. There is a 50 homerun club, which includes active players like Griffey Jr., ARod, Thome, Fielder, Howard, Ortiz and AJones. Many more clubs in baseball exist.
I have recently uncovered a new club: The 3500 club. Many of you are already asking "What is it and how can I get in?" Sorry folks... membership is not coveted by fantasy owners.
Certain pitchers exhibit warning signs from year to year. I've always wondered why certain pitchers' careers take a turn for the worse. Some hurlers just throw too many pitches.
I've compiled a list of pitchers who have thrown 3500 or more pitches in a single season since 2005. There only appears to be a handful of them each year. However, there are several recidivists.
When I display for you the list of pitchers who are on this list and you see how their careers have taken a turn for the worse because of overuse, you'll know why nobody wants to be a part of this club.
In 2005, the following pitchers were members of the 3500 club: Livan Hernandez, Barry Zito, Carlos Zambrano, Doug Davis, Noah Lowry, Chris Capuano and Dontrelle Willis. What did all of these pitchers have in common in 2005?
1. They all had ERA's under 3.99.
2. They all threw 3500+ pitches
3. They have all had ERA's close to or above 5.00 last year and/or the year before.
Carlos Zambrano, despite not having an ERA close to the others, has seen his ERA, WHIP, and number of hits allowed and walks increase for 3 consecutive years.
I bet going into 2006 all of those guys were targeted in drafts only to have owners in dismay come July.
Today, none of those pitchers are weekly starters or are drafted highly at all, aside from Carlos Zambrano. And only naive owners draft him.
Let's take a look at the 2006 members of the 3500 club. The list includes John Lackey, Dontrelle Willis, Carlos Zambrano, Barry Zito, Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang. Let's leave out Lackey and Harang for a moment.
While we already spoke of Zambrano, Willis and Zito, we haven't spoken about Arroyo. His 240 inning, 3.20 ERA rose a full run to 4.20 last year. Expect it to increase again this year.
Lackey and Harang showed no signs of wear and tear last year, one year removed from the 3500 club. Be patient.
2007 member of the 3500 club include Dontrelle Willis, Daniel Cabrera, Gil Meche, CC Sabathia, Aaron Harang, Scott Kazmir, Jake Peavy, Carlos Zambrano, Dan Haren, Barry Zito, John Lackey and Bronson Arroyo.
Wow! Last year had 12 pitchers on the list. That would be a significant increase from the previous two years.
That makes three straight years on the list for Zito, Zambrano and Willis. I suggest steering clear of those three based on that information alone.
That makes two years in a row for Lackey, Harang and Arroyo. While Arroyo's ship has already sailed, shouldn't you be a bit more cautious with Harang and Lackey this year? I would, based on the percentage of pitchers in the 3500 club and their track records.
Some new members include Haren, Kazmir, Meche, Peavy and Sabathia. What do they all have in common? CAREER YEARS!
They all seem due for a big let down. The increase in innings for these pitchers may have contributed to their career years as Haren's ERA was close to 3.00, Kazmir led the league in K's, Sabathia and Peavy won the Cy Young and Meche had an ERA under 5.00 for the first time in 7 years!
Now, let's not get carried away here. I'm not telling you to steer clear of Jake Peavy. But I am sending out extreme warning signs for John Lackey and Aaron Harang. Both have made the list two years in a row and nobody has come out of the 3500 club alive after making it for two years in a row. Carlos Zambrano has been the one guy whose avoided a total collapse.. yet. But his numbers are clearly fading fast.
Guys like Sabathia, Peavy, Haren, Kazmir and Meche though, have to be taken seriously. They all experienced career years and threw more innings and pitches last year than in any other year during their careers.
As I continue to track the 3500 club's members, so should you. If you want to play it safe and avoid what many would deem "busts" come July... then avoid members of the 3500 club.
While it won't effect every pitcher in this elusive club, it will effect the majority.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
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7 comments:
this is why I check this site. Everyone can post "I think so-and-so will have a breakout year based on nothing more than my gut."
This was the best baseball post I have read all year. Thank you for posting some valuable content.
Randy
just wanted to let you know that lackey was over 100 pitches away from the 3500 mark in 2007. but good analysis nonetheless.. very insightful
Just wanted to let anonymous know that you were right and he was wrong. Lackey is our first victim.
haha this is one of the coolest posts ever. why?
well, someone offered me lackey on Thursday. I said "no, he's gonna get hurt this year."
my friend said "ur stupid. he's never gotten hurt."
and BAM! he got hurt! coincidence, maybe, but this post made me look like a genius!
Let's go back 20 or 40 or 80 years and apply this technique to the durable starters and big names of those eras. If going over the 3500 pitch mark was a certain sign of impending doom, surely we'd have noticed.
I personally believe that this is just pure coincidence, and there are some inaccuracies here too...
John Lackey threw 3399 pitches last year... not 3500+. Bronson Arroyo threw 3429 pitches. If you're going to include guys who didn't go over 3500, why not scare your audience into believing Joe Blanton, Jeff Francis, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Javier Vazquez, Brandon Webb, Barry Zito, and Andy Pettitte went over 3500 as well?
(Here's the list: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching?split=0&league=mlb&season=2007&seasonType=2&sort=pitches&type=pitch3&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&state=0&college=0&country=0&hand=a&pos=all)
You also conveniently failed to note what happened with Aaron Harang in 2007 after he threw 3747 pitches in 2006. Oh, that's right...
W total stayed the same at 16, but the L total went down from 11 to 6. His Ks went from 216 to 218. His ERA went from 3.76 to 3.73. His WHIP went from 1.27 to 1.14.
I think you are right to a degree about certain players, but you really have to take into account advances in training and building pitcher stamina to take on the entire season.
It's an interesting comment so I went back and checked this back to 2000. I think it's interesting, but I'll agree with this being more a "coincidence". The injury figures for pitchers 3500+ are no more than the ones between 3200 and 3500. With that many pitches, you're getting 35 starts, so a full healthy season. Then you see about half of them come up injured or less effective. Well, yes. Almost half of all pitchers will go on the DL in any one year, so having about half of all pitchers in this group is more regression than causation. Like PAP, I think the 3500 tells us as much about which pitchers are unusually durable as it does about injury prediction.
- Will Carroll, Baseball Prospectus
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