Friday, February 29, 2008

Isolated Power

Isolated Power attempts to describe a hitter's overall effectiveness by measuring his ability to generate extra base hits.

The formula is rather simple compared to other sabermetrical statistics: Slugging % - Batting AVG.

Example: Lance Berkman's Slugging % last year was .509. His AVG was .278. When you subtract the AVG from the SLG you are left with .231.

Isolated Power (ISO) is an important stat that can be used to determine which hitters are getting those extra base hits.

Nobody loves Placido Polanco's .340 AVG because its about as empty as the stands at a Marlins vs Nationals game in September. Do you really want a player on your roster who tallies 200 hits, 185 of them being singles?

Point taken.. I hope.

So let's get to the players who generated the most extra base hits according to their ISO.

Carlos Pena Bonds and Sosa's steroids-enhanced season aside, only Ortiz, Hafner and Pujols, all in 2006, have had ISO's as high as Pena's was last year. In fact you'd have to date back to 1999 to find a comparable ISO. So for all of those doubters, Pena did have a totally legit year from a sabermetrical standpoint. Even if he loses 10 homers and ends up at 36, he'll be a bargain this year. Remember, he only had 490 AB last year and amassed 121 RBI.

Over 15 pts lower than Pena, the following players comprised the rest of the top 10 in ISO in 2007.

Arod-------------------.331
Fielder----------------.330
Howard---------------.316
Ortiz------------------.290
Dunn------------------.289
Thome----------------.287
Holliday--------------.267
Chipper---------------.267
Soriano---------------.267

No surprises there.. But were there any surprises outside the top 10?

Curtis Granderson
His 12th rated ISO is a product of his stellar amount of doubles and triples. He did pop over 20 homers but he put himself in position to drive runs in and score runs in 2007. Expect that trend to continue in 2008.

Jack Cust His name keeps coming up and rightfully so. 26 homers in 395 AB with a .251 AVG puts him in line to be the Adam Dunn of the AL.

Brad Hawpe A Hawpe, skip and a jump later he was in the top 15. No doubt Coors field helps but he'll still be there next year. With Holliday, Atkins and Helton in front of him, those 116 RBI in 2007 are far from a fluke.

Corey Hart He ranked 18th and barely reached 500 AB. Expect a huge year from him as Fielder and Braun drive him in 120 times.

While Reggie Willits sported the worst ISO (.051), there were a few surprises on this list.

The following hitters may have had high averages and contact rates, but much like Polanco, their hits only landed them as far as first base, decreasing their chances of driving runners in and scoring runs.

Derek Jeter My, how the overrated have fallen. His .130 ISO is awful and if he weren't playing for the Yankees he'd be Freddy Sanchez. However, he does still play for the Yankees and because of that reason (and that reason only) you could rely on him to post solid RUNS and RBI totals for a SS.

Johnny Damon Ditto for this guy. It's amazing how much a lineup can overrate you. If you have lost most of your ability but would still like to contribute to a fantasy team, join the Yankees.

Delmon Young 200 hits, 200 shmits. He had 186 last year and 93 RBI and everyone was trying to justify how he's taking the right steps towards breaking out. I beg to differ. 700+ plate appearances and 75% of his hits were singles.

Melky Cabrera His .130 ISO lands him in the bottom 20 in the majors. And he couldn't be included in a Santana deal why? Arod may be the ONLY Yankee with legitimate talent left in that lineup. You put enough guys together, though, who are slightly above-average veterans and you get a team that holds the highest payroll, makes the playoffs every year and loses in the first round. Ok, enough about the Yankees, sorry.

Chone Figgins His .102 ISO is dreadful as well. No surprise when we see his career average of 6 homers a year along with about 40 RBI. He's a steals guy who now must be your CI instead of your MI.

Michael Young Another guy who's past his prime. Health and Arlington will keep your age hidden without a doubt. Don't expect much improvement on 2007.

Rafael Furcal A lousy .084 ISO ranks him in the bottom 10. While he came on strong stealing 15 bags down the stretch, his days of 15-20 homers may be behind him.

Juan Pierre Another guy who should be targeted for steals and steals only. You probably knew that about him already.

Ichiro He normally goes second round. His .080 ISO ranks him in the bottom 5. Imagine how little he'd help your team if that .350 AVG ever dipped to the .300 range. He would then be worse than Juan Pierre. Wait, he hits 8 homers and Pierre hits 1. I'll give Ichiro the edge in power. Not to knock the guy because he's most helpful in steals, runs and AVG. He's been a model of consistency and I believe he's scored exactly 111 runs in 5 of his 6 major league seasons. I'm just saying that he hits a heck of a lot of singles and we need to hope that his AVG continues to be in the league's top 5 to justify such a high draft pick.


ISO can definitely help us determine which hitters have generated the most extra base hits and the least extra base hits from year to year. For your fantasy team that translates to players who have the best chances to contribute in the RUNS and RBI categories with the addition of significant power for your team. Remember, many of the low ISO guys still score 100+ runs, because they usually bat leadoff, steal bags and end up scoring. But they clearly will be lacking on the RBI end as their surplus of singles doesn't help them drive in runs. In addition, their lack of power makes them players to avoid if possible, while going after players who bring more to the table in terms of an all-around fantasy contributer.

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