This week's topic had
The Roundtable discuss a more strategic topic, as opposed to
player preference.
Is it important to get a top 5 catcher, or do you prefer waiting until rounds 15+? After Victor Martinez and Russell Martin, what catchers should go next and when? What catchers should be targeted late?
Here is what the guys had to say:
Commish-Fantasy Baseball Geeks- In a word, "No". It is not important for me to get one of the top catchers. Whether the league requires one or two starting catchers, I go into most drafts targeting a late round catcher, or in an auction I only plan on spending $1 per catcher.
When doing most of my off season homework, the time I spent researching catchers was spent more on the Carlos Ruiz's, Mike Napoli's and Kurt Suzuki's of the world than it was spent on deciding who I liked better between Martinez and Martin.
Having said that, you can't totally ignore catching as a draft rolls on. If an upper caliber catcher falls more than I think he should then I am very willing to go against my game plan and take a good value when available.
Case in point; in a long term keeper league draft that I participated in last week Brian McCann was still available when I selected at pick #98 and I grabbed him. Compare that to his current ADP of #53 and that is a huge value. You should always be on the lookout for value picks, no matter how much it varies from your overall draft strategy.
If I were to target a top catcher; I would be looking at either Joe Mauer or Brian McCann after the big 2 are off the board and would start considering them a round or two where I grabbed McCann above. I would ignore Jorge Posada based on what it will most likely cost to acquire him.
And I would let someone else take the risk by drafting Jarrod Saltalamacchia, as it looks more and more like he could be starting the season in Oklahoma. In addition you can call me crazy, but Geovany Soto reminds me of when Toby Hall was the big catching prospect with the high batting average potential.
Hopefully Soto turns out better than Toby but I will not find out the hard way. Coincidentally, on our website we just posted a nice rundown of the catchers going late in drafts. Feel free to check it out....The ones I like are Ramon Hernandez, Mike Napoli, Carlos Ruiz, Gerald Laird (real late) and Kurt Suzuki.
David Chase-Brock For Broglio- Typically, I draft best on board. And catchers who have .280/20/80 upside don’t produce equally to the big 1B/OF types that are going in the same rounds. One commonly overlooked risk with catchers is their propensity for injuries. I don’t have the statistics handy, but the Catcher position is physically demanding, and as a consequence, a Catcher who plays often does have higher risk for injury.
I’d especially be cautious of catchers who are getting further away from their youth. Victor Martinez is 29 which might be something to be wary about. After Victor Martinez and Russell Martin, I’d go with Mauer if I need to be aggressive, or McCann if I’m being more conservative/safe.
Mauer’s upside cancels out his durability issues. McCann’s isn’t going to match Mauer’s production if both take the batter’s box an equal amount of times, but he’s the better bet to stay healthy. As for sleeper catchers this season:
Soto, and Towles are the obvious choices. Soto had a massive spike in his power output last season, but from what I’ve read, scouts and club officials are attributing that to a new approach and not a fluky hot streak. I tend to err on the side of reliable sample sizes, and since Soto’s never shown that type of production previously, I wouldn’t bet on him repeating.
Towles on the other hand could be a poor man’s Russell Martin; providing value in all 5 categories. He’s had a good spring up until his recent ham string problem. All indication is that it’s minor and he’ll be back before the season starts.
I'd also throw Kurt Suzuki’s name in the super sleeper bunch. His minor league numbers aren’t eye popping, but he’s been very durable, and plays in a lot of games. I could see him producing similarly to a back up 2B type in a standard format, which is decent value out of the “C” position, and he’s somebody who commonly goes undrafted.
Rob Reed- Baseball Geeks- In a serpentine draft, it is fantasy suicide. The bottom line is that even the best catchers usually won't place themselves in the top 100 offensive fantasy players. Playertrack.com ranks the top 4 catchers according to their fantasy stats from 2007 as follows: Martin (111), Posada (139), V-mart (146), and then the HUGE drop off... McCann (311). The majority of catchers, in fact, appear in the bottom 150.
In one of my serpentine drafts this year, a team chose V-mart with the 30th pick (3rd round). Here are the players who followed that pick (in order): Webb, Markakis, Aramis, Manny, Papelbon, Rios, Bedard, Haren, Beckett, Magglio, Putz, Granderson.
In the 4th round, Martin was selected, followed by Sabathia, Atkins, Derrek Lee, Hamels, K-rod, Chipper. Forgetting position, from a fantasy statistic perspective, I would rather have most, if not all, of the players that followed the catcher picks.
Proponents of this concept will reasonably argue position scarcity. However, the loss of key players at other positions (where numbers are generally in higher quantity because a catcher that gives you 500 ABs is a rarity) is not worth any benefit her. This is because the majority of teams in your league will get a catcher who generates LOUSY stats when compared to other position players.
Further, and perhaps most importantly, when you draft the catcher position early to get the 111th best offensive player in fantasy, you have to conform your team around that catcher's deficiencies.
When you choose a catcher later, you have the control to determine what kind of catcher you should draft based upon your strengths. For instance, if you were solid in AVG, but you needed pop, you could get a Ramon Hernandez (or even -- egad -- a David Ross type) late. If you were solid in all categories, but you needed a cheap source of SBs, you might gamble with a Towles.
I hate that we have to have catchers in fantasy. I would like to scrap 'em. Such is life. BUT, I don't want a catcher selection to control how I will draft. I want the control to determine how to stop the bleeding.
Eric Stashin- Rotoprofessor.com- Personally, in a league that requires just one catcher, I'm not entering the draft looking to target one of the Top 5 catchers, unless Russell Martin happens to fall to me in the late 4th or 5th round. Besides that scenario, I am going to take the best player available. I do not believe in taking a lesser player because he plays a position that is harder to fill, especially a catcher.
This season, there are a few players who can be seen as sleepers who have the potential to perform nearly as well as some of the top options, and you can get them over a dozen rounds later.
One of these players is Geovanny Soto, who I am extremely high on this season. His numbers between AAA were incredible (.353, 26 HR and 109 RBI) and he continued hitting in the majors in September. I know the argument that it was his third time around in AAA, but I'm honestly not buying that. Obviously, I don't believe he is going to hit for the same type of average, as a BABIP of .415 is just not going to happen.
Still, I see a player who put things together and I wouldn't be surprised if he hit around .280 with close to 20 HR. I'd look at him somewhere in Rounds 12-16, depending on how the draft is flowing. At that point, I would consider him to be equal value to the names coming off the board. Soto is probably the only catcher I'm looking at in the middle rounds.
If I miss out on him, it's going to be some deep sleepers in the late rounds. The three I'd most like to get is Ronny Paulino, Carlos Ruiz and JR Towles, in that order. All three of these players have the chance to breakout this season, and even if they don't, I think they will perform almost as well as the players that go in the middle rounds. You'd be hard pressed to find a league that I don't have Martin, Soto or one of my three late round sleepers.
As for after the Top 2 catchers, I would expect the next set of catchers to come off the board between Rounds 4 and 9. Names like Joe Mauer, Brian McCann and Jorge Posada are all solid options, despite the fact that I'd ignore them in these rounds. There are too many better overall players that I would rather be drafting over these players.
Obviously, if two catchers are required, everything changes radically. The value of having one of the top options increases, since players like Yorvit Torrealba, Yadier Molina and David Ross are probably going to be starting for teams. With some of the catchers that will be starting, teams would almost be better off leaving the spot opened as opposed to having a player that is going to drag them down.
Therefore, instead of ignoring three of the five top options, I'm making sure that I grab one. I want to make sure that my team is not handicapped by having a player who is not going to help in even one category.
If my league requires two catchers, my plan is to get one of the top options, then supplement them with a player who is a potential sleeper. The players I mentioned earlier (Soto, Paulino & Ruiz mainly) are the ones I'd like most.
If I can pair Martin or Mauer with one of those three, I'd be pretty confident that I'd be in the top half of the league in production of my catchers. That would go a long ways in helping my offensive in general.
Tim Dierkes- RotoAuthority- It is important to me to snag a top five catcher. I see at least a $5 drop off in value after Posada. In a two catcher league, it's imperative to get a top five guy. Posada in the seventh or eighth round is a steal in my mind. Catcher scarcity is very real - in a standard two catcher mixed league catcher eligibility adds $13 of value.
There are tons of sleepers after the Big Five though: Soto, Towles, Ruiz, Doumit, Ramon Hernandez, Chris Snyder, Dioner Navarro. This tier begins moving around the 11th round. Bengie Molina probably isn't a sleeper but he seems undervalued. On the other hand, Jarrod Saltalamacchia seems well overvalued as a 12th round pick.
Patrick DiCaprio- Fantasy Baseball Generals- I do not think it is important to get a top five catcher. The marginal difference between a top five catcher and someone like Mike Napoli is not that great, but the difference in draft position is probably 20 rounds.
Taking a catcher early carries a large opportunity cost as you have to pass up a more productive hitter at another position in exchange for a relatively small gain in marginal production. In mixed leagues my catcher is generally the last pick of the draft; as fate would have it I did a draft last night and took Napoli with my very last pick
Adam Ronis- Newsday.com- I treat catchers like a girl that I keep around for my convenience. I don't pay them much mind. It's all about value, so if a Russell Martin or Victor Martinez drops to round 5 or 6, I'll think about it, but we all know that doesn't happen.
I prefer the power bats in round 3, which is where the top catching duo usually goes. However, I did keep Russell Martin in a mixed keeper league for $6. That's far below his actual value and is equivalent to drafting him around round 11.
Catchers won't make or break your team. It's also a grueling position that gets players beat up between incessant foul tips off the body and crouching in the heat.
I like McCann, but he also goes too early for my taste. The guys I will target late are Kurt Suzuki, Chris Snyder, Carlos Ruiz, Mike Napoli and Dioner Navarro.
18 comments:
How about calculating values for all players and if a catcher appears as the most valuable player available, you draft him? I don't target a top 5 catcher, top 5 SS, or any player, I just select the player who falls to me in the draft who's at the top of my rankings sorted by $$ value. It's all about value.
If catchers are being taken earlier than their worth, I'll get one late. If they are going later, i draft one early.
I'm a little suprised - I thought this was a dead issue.
There IS position scarcity, and no, it can't be ignored. Comparing the stats of catchers to other players makes no sense whatsoever. You want the best stats total, and position scarcity is an unavoidable conclusion.
I haven't played in mixed leagues in a long time, but I believe a catcher is generally worth $10-12 more than a 1B/OF with similar stats. And there are also usually differences between all the positions (maybe 2Bs are worth $5 more than OF, I don't know the exact numbers).
In an AL or NL-only league, the difference is much smaller. Some choose to value catchers differently (getting the baseline value of both catchers and non-catchers and calculating value over replacement separately). In practice though, it's usually fine to just add $2 to all catchers.
This is why I cringe at strategies such as "you must get a top 5 catcher" or "getting a top 5 catcher is suicide". These to me are akin to saying "you must have a 50 SB guy and 2 40 HR guys."
You should take a catcher if he's a good pick at that spot, once position scarcity is factored in. You definitely do not need a Martin, Posada, etc. - but depending who is available and when they are available, they may be good picks.
Catchers aren't any more special than any other position. They're just worse. Get your projections as good as you possibly can, figure out how much of a bump the catchers should get, and draft them. Or don't.
Well, obviously I disagree with you Brett immensely.
The point in comparing catchers with other position players is important to see what you are losing out on. Focus on the players who were lost to those with early catcher pics in my real-life examples.
What players are going to compare with those after the third and fourth rounds?
Catchers, as a whole, suck. And, when there are only FIVE (I disagree with this number, by the way -- I would say there are THREE) "stud" catchers on the board, that means SEVEN teams will have crap in a ten-team league.
Meaning: Get crap in the catcher position like the majority of your league while getting stud players in prime positions who will greatly add to your stat totals.
Brett said what I was trying to say, but a lot more eloquently! Basically, catchers, and every other position slot required in a fantasy league MUST be compared relative to the production of other players at that position only. Everyone needs a catcher, so you must compare a catcher's production to every other catcher.
If we were playing in a league with 14 UTIL slots, then and only then would you compare a catcher's stats in the 5 cats to another potential 3rd or 4th rounder who plays another position. But we don't, so you need to compare V-Mart, for example, to a replacement level catcher to determine how much marginal stats he will provide over and above that replacement-level catcher, who is available for free.
We are only paying for stats above what we could get for free on free agency, right? So unless I could put any hitter I choose in my catcher slot, then I'm going to compare V-Mart's production with a Yorvit Torrealba, not a Curtis Granderson.
Frankly, I'm surprised Tim was the only one who mentioned anything about dollar values and scarcity for this question.
BaseballGeek -
The players that you lose out on (to select your "inferior" catcher) are irrelevant. Specifically because you're concerned with the _totals_ of your team, and this is directly where position scarcity comes from.
Again, I'm not very familiar with mixed draft leagues, but I'll take a crack using your examples, some projections, and some ADP numbers:
So let's look at V-Mart in the 3rd round. We're talking about .300, 20 HR, 100 RBI, in 500-550 AB.
After him, take, say, Markakis:
Similar power numbers, but add the speed. Say 25 HR, 100 RBI, .300 average, and 15 steals.
Clearly Markakis is better, and nobody is debating that. The difference comes later, when you compare the OF with the catcher that you'd get later, say in the 12th round.
Now, I'm doing this very arbitrarily, using ESPN's live draft results (it's the first link I could find when searching for ADP), let's look at some other catchers:
Johjima - pick 146
Molina - pick 180
Pierzynski - pick 233
Compare them to the OF that you're getting at those times:
near Johjima:
Rowand (136)
Griffey (140)
Ibanez (151)
So we want to compare Johjima + Markakis with V-Mart + Rowand.
For Rowand, let's go with a projection of .280/20/80/10 in 550 AB.
For Johjima: .290/15/65/0 in 500 AB.
What do we get?
Johjima + Markakis:
~.295/40/165/15
V-Mart + Rowand:
~.290/40/180/10
Is Johjima + Markakis better? Maybe a little. But the point is that they're close, and either pair could easily come out ahead this year without surprising anyone.
Your point is that Markakis is much better than V-Mart, and nobody disputes that. My point is that Rowand is much better than Johjima, and your aggregate stats are the same, which is why it can make sense to take a catcher early.
Do this with any pairs of players, and the numbers will come out similarly (and if they don't, then there's some inneficiency in the draft positions, and you can take advantage accordingly).
The root cause is simply because the last draftable catcher is much worse than the last draftable OF. Different replacement levels means position scarcity exists, which means that catchers should be drafted earlier (or auctioned for more) than non-catchers with the same stats.
So back to the original question - do you need at top 5 catcher? There's no definitive answer to this question. The answer is "if you can get them at a favorable draft position, once position scarcity is figured in."
And sorry to keep beating a dead horse, but take one more example, which I hope proves that the "best overall stats" approach is doomed to fail, and that values are heavily dependent on roster and player-pool makeup:
You and I are playing in a 2 team league. Each of us must draft one catcher and one 1B. There are four players available:
Ryan Howard
Prince Fielder
Victor Martinez
Jose Molina
You have the first pick.
A few questions:
1) Which of the 4 players will put up the best raw stats?
2) Who do you pick first?
3) So who's the most valuable player?
My point goes much larger than "Markakis is better than VMart." You didn't pay attention to all the other players.
There's the Cy Young winner for the AL who was drafted the round AFTER VMart. One of the top 4 pitchers in baseball from last season was the pick immediately after VMart (Webb). The #1 AND #2 closers in all of baseball were drafted after VMart, etc etc etc.
It is EXACTLY because a player like Johjima is available in the 14th or so round that you don't need VMart or Martin in the 3rd or 4th round. As far as I am concerned, you're making my point for me here.
Then, there is your skewed example following that post.
You take two studs who are nearly identical and one catcher who is lousy and one who isn't. If I know I can get a Ryan Howard OR Prince Fielder, (based on last season) they are nearly a wash, so of course I take thee catcher in a "pick 2 players of 4" league.
How about this example?
C.C. Sabathia
Hiroki Kuroda
Miguel Olivo
A.J. Pierzynski
If only fantasy baseball were this easy! :)
-Rob
Well, that was a lousy example... I had a pre-coffee brain fart. Replace Olivo with Napoli, Buck, Zaun, take your pick.
I never said that you need a good catcher (and I never said that you don't need a good catcher). All I'm trying to say is that _sometimes_ it makes sense to take a good catcher, and given a catcher and non-catcher with the same stats, the catcher is "better" (or "more valuable", if you prefer).
We can use Sabathia or Webb in place of Markakis if you like, but obviously that makes the comparisons a lot trickier. The point still remains though. If, given position scarcity, the catcher is better than the pitcher, then he's the better pick. (And you know, of course, that Sabathia winning the Cy Young and Webb being one of the top 4 pitchers is irrelevant - it's only about the stats they produce). If you want to say that Sabathia is great (and I agree) and he should be picked earlier, then fine, but that's a different argument, and (here's the important part) your same argument should hold for Sabathia vs. Markakis as it does for Sabathia vs. V-Mart.
Of course my example was skewed, and of course you take V-Mart first. That's exactly the point - the difference in 1B is slim, so you have to gain your advantage in the catchers. This is a contrived example, but it's completely analogous to real leagues:
The worst catchers that you must roster (eg. the 11th and 12th best catchers in 12-team/1-catcher leagues) are so much worse than the worst rosterable 1B/OF, that all other catchers are worth more than comparable 1B/OF as well).
Do you buy the fact that guys like Varitek, Saltalamacchia, and Ramon Hernandez (ESPN's #10-12 catchers) are roughly equal in value to Dmitri Young, Gary Matthews, and Jack Cust?
Finally, in your example (again, mixing pitchers and hitters makes it more complicated), the answer is, roughly speaking:
If you think the difference between Sabathia and Kuroda is bigger than the difference between Olivo and Pierzynski, then you take Sabathia. If you think that the difference between Pierzynski and Olivo is bigger than the difference between Sabathia and Kuroda, then you take Pierzynski (or whichever catcher you think is better). In this case, most if not all would agree that you take Sabathia (no need to regress into a discussion about Olivo's playing time being severely cut into and there actually being a slight possibility that Pierzynski is the right choice here - I believe you were trying to select 2 similar catchers, so Sabathia is the choice).
This is the essence of the argument - given the positional constraints, the scarce resource is worth more. And because of the relative weakness of replacement-level catchers, ALL catchers get a boost. And yes, that means that V-Mart's boost puts him (maybe) in the Markakis/Sabathia tier.
For the V-Mart vs. Sabathia argument, I'll say this: If you think that Sabathia is about equal to Markakis, then Sabathia is about equal to V-Mart. Transitivity still holds.
Finally, though it might sound it, I'm not necessarily advocating picking V-Mart over Markakis or Sabathia or whoever. I'm just saying that you MUST give catchers a boost when comparing them to other players.
Like I said earlier, in an NL-only league, this boost is about $2. In a mixed league, Tim's $13 boost seems reasonable. I'm not well-versed in draft leagues, but it seems like catchers should get roughly a 3 round boost over 1B, meaning that you should take a catcher with the same stats as a 1B about 3 rounds earlier than the 1B.
Sorry for being so long-winded about this; I really just thought we were long beyond the debate stage - this is just a roto truth now, isn't it?
Like Brett, I'm pretty surprised so many "experts" don't seem to understand position scarcity. Brett (and Tim from RotoAuthority) hit the nail on the head. A replacement-level fantasy catcher is much, much worse than a replacement-level fantasy outfielder. Combining a stud catcher taken early with a "dud" outfielder taken late gives you roughly the same stats as taking a stud outfielder earlier and a dud catcher late.
If you don't like Brett's example, use your own players. Name an OF you would take around 35-40 and an OF and C you would take around 160. Then add the stats of Martin or V-Mart to those of the OF you would take at 160. Add the stats of your 35-40 OF with your 160 catcher. If the composite stats are pretty close, then position scarcity lives.
Honestly (no offense intended to anyone in particular, since people can obviously win leagues without understanding or supporting the concept), but I find it hard to consider anyone an "expert" if they don't understand and acknowledge position scarcity when it exists.
Its a perfectly legitimate strategy to say "I don't like taking a catcher early, position scarcity notwithstanding." This might be done for any number of reasons - there are quite a few catchers with some upside you want to gamble on later in the draft (this is me, as I like Soto, Ruiz, Towles, etc.). Or maybe you think they are more prone to nagging injuries that can drag down their stats (I agree). But pretending like position scarcity doesn't exist says a lot about whether or now you are an "expert".
All that said, I tend to shy away from taking catchers early. Mostly because I think there are quite a few good values later in the draft and I'm willing to gamble on one or 2 of them late. But that is personal preference and I did draft Martin fairly early in one of my leagues, because I didn't like the alternatives at that point.
Just my $.02
People tend to undervalue position scarcity, sometimes way more than they should. In general, every league is different, every draft is different, but speaking on Yahoo leagues, there were three catchers in the top 100 in production, Posada, VMart, and Martin at 51, 66, and 71 respectively. The 10th, 11th, and 12th best catcher are Paulino, Pierzynski, and Lo Duca at 703, 719, 749. The drop off isn't just huge, it's Grand Canyon size. Numbers tend to speak for themselves. Its amazing that in a game created and driven by numbers, people make decisions with their gut.
The Brett/Rotoauthority side of the issue wins hands down. Its frustrating to listen someone argue the contrary. In one of my leauges (12team standard, 2catcher) I took Vmart 17 knowing I wouldnt get him, or martin, at 32 and Jorge at 65 thinking I probably wouldn't get him at 80. This was obviously a "strategy" I wanted to test, but I really believe those are still value picks. Catchers are so very underrated. The only problem with taking them that high is that all catchers are underrated, so the midteen ranked catchers who go really, really late are good value picks as well. But Ill take my extra 60 runs and rbi and chances elsewhere.
"A replacement-level fantasy catcher is much, much worse than a replacement-level fantasy outfielder."
That's all well and good but the other side is asking whether a replacement level C is much worse than a top tier C.
Tim is projecting VMart at 20/93/78/.297.
Molina, IRod, and AJ, all of whom can be had very late (ESPN ADPs are 180, 183, 233 respectively) are roughly projected at 13/60/53/.270. Using an ADP in the 140-160 range for your dud catcher is misleading to me. That's way too high. I think you need to compare an OF/1B taken in the 190-220 range and I think in most drafts you can get a C who has a decent shot at 13/60/53/.270 after 190. I picked up Ramon Hernandez around 230 the other day.
That means you are drafting Martinez 15-16 rounds higher for 7 HR, 35 RBI, 25 Runs, and about 25 points in average.
That's not a Grand Canyon sized difference to me.
The OFs who are being drafted in the 180-220 range are Jose Guillen, Ankiel, Bourn, Duncan, Matt Diaz, and Upton. The position players being drafted near Martinez are A. Ramirez, Morneau, Byrnes, Hafner, Markakis, and Atkins.
I think the anti-catcher group's point is that the OF/1B to be had in the late rounds will not come within 7/35/25 of the OF/1B who are available when Martinez and Martin are selected.
Thank you, RPS. Perfect.
It is so obvious to me. Seeing the "Greener" guys draft Johjima in the 18TH round in their latest expert draft continues to solidify my point.
I'm sorry I haven't had the time to respond to RPS yet, and likely won't for today at least.
I just wanted to point out though that we are not in the "anti-catcher" or "pro-catcher" group. I, at least, am not necessarily advocating drafting a catcher early.
I am in the "pro-position scarcity" group, and specifically take issue with Rob seemingly equating "the best catchers are not among the 100 best hitters" with "the best catchers are not among the 100 most valuable roto hitters, given standard positional requirements."
Position scarcity makes the catchers better. That's all. If you think that Martinez is being taken too early even after position scarcity is considered, then that's fine. But if you think it's the proper strategy to take the guy with better stats regardless of position, that's just wrong.
Also, the limited number of AB that catchers get is irrelevant, as that should be factored into your projections.
Getting Johjima in the 18th round - an excellent pick - only proves that the other owners let him fall much too far.
Quickly. Based on Tim's projections:
J. Guillen: .279/19/77/3
Ankiel: .252/27/86/2
Duncan: .262/23/70/2
Hafner: .281/30/102/1
A. Ramirez: .297/31/105/1
Morneau: .281/31/108/2
Looks like the gaps between the players in the first group and those in the 2nd group are even SMALLER than the "7 HR, 35 RBI, 25 Runs, and about 25 points in average" that RPS quoted as being the difference between VMart and the ~200th pick catchers.
Just realized I didn't look at runs (used to playing 4X4) but I'm sure it will turn out similarly.
Maybe using the example provided by an "anti-catcher guy" to prove the value of good catchers can finally put this to rest?
Good responses Brett. When I saw the list of other hitters available at 180-200, I thought it proved the point quite nicely (without looking at projections).
I'm not in the "pick-a-catcher-early" group either. I have done it, but I'd prefer to go after one of the sleepers or undervalued players late. But pretending like position scarcity doesn't exist is, as Brett said, just plain wrong.
If you don't believe position scarcity inflates catcher value, why even draft Johjima in the 18th round when guys like Ankiel and Guillen will almost assuredly put up better stats?
2 answers: (1) obviously you need to fill the C roster spot eventually and you might have already filled your OF slots and
(2) a catcher with Johjima's stats in the 18th round is worth more than an OF with slightly better stats in the 18th round. Because of (wait for it) position scarcity.
Again, I prefer not to draft a catch early (though I think McCann is a great bounce-back candidate). And I think its entirely possible elite catchers are being drafted too early, because they aren't really all that elite compared to the seasons Pudge and Piazza would put up 10 years ago. But any argument that elite catchers don't have extra value because of position scarcity is off-base.
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