Looking For Homeruns?

I wanted to take a look at some of the early surprises in the HR category. Mark Reynolds? Edwin Encarnacion?

The Groundball to Flyball ratio is a good indicator of why a player may be hitting a lot of HR's. If the ratio favors the fly ball, then maybe the player is trying for the HR. If a significant number of ground balls are being hit, I wouldn't expect this pace to continue.

Last year's top 15 in Fly Ball Ratio included Frank Thomas, Burrell, Griffey, Uggla, Soriano, Chris Young, Dunn, Howard, Ellis and Fielder. Notice how these are all 30+ guys with lower averages. Nonetheless they all hit for a lot of power.


Homers are on the way...

Khalil Greene - He's #1 in FB rate and hit 27 last year. The tides will turn for Greene and his owners.

Mark Ellis - He hit 19 last year and always seems to hit a ton more fly balls than ground balls.

Ryan Braun - With only 3 dingers thus far, you can't be happy with your first round pick. Things should turn around soon as he continues to hit fly balls at a far better rate than ground balls.

Ryan Garko - With only two homers, everyone is wondering if he can be valuable enough to be a starting CI on your roster. He clubbed 21 last year in less than 500 AB. With 30 FB's to only 18 GB's, Garko's fly balls should be exiting the park in a stadium near you soon.

Franklin Gutierrez - Only one homer to date may have him on some waiver wires. He had 13 homers last year in less than 300 AB and given 500+ this year could pop 25+.


Homers are here to stay...

Chase Utley - He leads the majors in homers and is 3rd in FB rate. This trend should continue.

Ryan Ludwig - He's got 4 already and sports a top 5 FB rate. If he keeps hitting this many fly balls, he's likely to pop a homer here and there.

Mark Reynolds - His five homers and normally low average are likely to repeat from 2007. His FB rate is 6th amongst regulars.

Brian McCann - Already with 5 homers, McCann's 2:1 FB/GB ratio bodes well for his continued power surge.

Manny Ramirez - Owners are happy that he's healthy and already with 5 homers. His 2:1 ratio of FB/GB means that a return to 30+ is likely.

Homers will go away...


Edwin Encarnacion - He's got five homers to date and is looking like a late round steal. He likely has power to hit 20, but not 40. He's hitting just as many GB and FB and the percentage of FB that go for homers is likely to decrease.

Derrick Lee - Seven homers? 22 last year seems about right. He's hitting 1 1/2 GB for every fly ball.

Raul Ibanez - With five homers, aren't you wondering if he will hit 35 again like he did a few years ago? Think again for he's hitting more GB than FB to date.

Hanley Ramirez - With six bombs already Hanley is making up for his lack of steals. Don't expect this trend to continue with almost twice as many GB as FB so far.

Casey Kotchman - While his average should continue to hover around the .320 range, he's likely to top out at 22-25 homers. Four in April already means he's likely to average four per month as opposed to six. He's currently hitting twice as many GB as FB.