BABIP, BABIP, BABIP... That's All Folks!

I ventured down the BABIP highway a few months ago and came to this conclusion.

While BABIP isn't my favorite nor the most telling of sabermatric stats, it is upon request that I share my insight on this year's BABIP's to date.

BABIP can be defined as Batting Average on Balls In Play. This is a measure of the number of batted balls that safely fall in for a hit (not including home runs). A typical BABIP is about .290 for a pitcher. Today we'll examine certain pitchers who strayed from the mean in 2007.

While the mean is typically .290, 65% of starting pitchers in 2007 has a BABIP between .270 and .310. Those guys aren't far off the average. However, 35% of pitchers were.

So, on to 2008 where we are nearly six weeks into the season.

The ten lowest BABIP through May 7th (BIPA if you are using ESPN)

10. Greg Smith - .211
9. Scott Olsen - .198
8. Ben Sheets - .196
7. Ryan Dempster - .187
6. Shaun Marcum - .183
5. Cliff Lee - .182
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka - .176
3. Armando Galarraga - .174
2. Erik Bedard - .169
1. Gavin Floyd - .160 (Lowest BABIP in the majors)

In analyzing these 10 pitchers, I can't come to grips with simply using BABIP as a predictor of their success or achievements thus far. I have to incorporate some DIPS or ERC (you can expect an ERC article early next week).

Of those 10, Lee, Galarraga and Sheets seem the likeliest to keep their numbers down as their BABIP increases because their other sabermetric stats check out some.

On the other hand, Olsen, Matsuzaka, Bedard and Floyd have rather high ERC and/or DIPS ratios as of now, leading me to believe that they are getting quite lucky so far in 2008.

Simply put, if you believe in and trust sabermetrics like I do, I'd be very quick to trade Olsen, Bedard, Daisuke and Floyd. Again, don't get me wrong. Bedard and Daisuke are 200 K guys and all, but they are clearly set up for a regression in the near future.

Floyd could have issues similar to Chris Young, where he sports a low BABIP throughout the entire year.

Maybe some of the pitchers with high BABIP's below may give you some ideas as to whom to target in exchange.

The ten highest BABIP through May 7th

1. Andrew Miller - .397
2. Bronson Arroyo - .382
3. Chris Sampson - .377
4. Phil Hughes - .376
5. Dustin Mosely - .369
6. Manny Parra - .364
7. CC Sabathia - .363
8. Chad Billingsley - .345
9. Ublando Jimenez - .345
10. Ian Snell - .341

Of this crew, its likely that you weren't counting much on the Arroyo, Sampson, Mosely.

Its possible you drafted and hoped that guys like Miller, Parra, Jimenez would pan out.

Its likely that you are frustrated with Sabathia, Snell, Hughes and Billingsley.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

If you are on the same page as me thus far, then rejoice in the following: Billingsley, Sabathia and Snell are the 3 from this list most likely to benefit from a lower BABIP.

While every pitcher benefits from a lower BABIP, most pitchers with high BABIP are pitching terribly. It is the few outliers that we seek in efforts of explaining why they've been pitching poorly.

Billingsley, Sabathia and Snell all fall into that category. CC and Snell sport DIPS in the mid 4.00's and Billingsley is at 3.50. That shows me that they've been unlucky and should some of those hits stop falling in, they should right the ship.

The rest of that gang either has DIPS/ERC above 5.00 or is nobody you want to waste your time on in 2008.