Chips and DIPS

DIPS, or Defense Independent Pitching Statistics is one of the most accurate statistics that can be used to determine how well a pitcher has pitched, independent from his defense behind him. After all, most of a pitcher's ERA is determined by his walk rate, strikeout rate, and ability to prevent homeruns. So, what kind of plays involve a defense in the first place? 1. Any ground ball in play. 2. Any fly ball that is not a homerun. So then, what does DIPS look at? The four statistics that are controlled entirely by a pitcher, even if there was not one fielder behind him. And they are: 1. homeruns 2. strikeouts 3. walks 4. hit batters. Those plays are under only the pitcher's control in the sense that fielders have no effect on their outcome.

Taking a closer look into DIPS, we can analyze a pitcher's ability level. The stats we are looking at won't be effected even if one pitcher's shortstop is Ozzie Smith and another's is David Ortiz. Defense-dependent statistics, such as the rate of hits allowed on balls put into play (other than home runs), are almost entirely the result of luck and the skills of the defensive players on the field. Today we take away those infielders and look at which pitchers have the best ability.

So, who are the leading DIPS pitchers thus far?

Who is truly pitching well and should see their ERA and WHIP go down?

Whose performance is being masked by inflated stats and is likely to see their ERA and WHIP rise?

Let's find out...

2008 DIPS Leaders

1. Cliff Lee - DIPS = 1.97 --- ERA = 0.96

2. John Smoltz - DIPS = 2.33 --- ERA = 2.00

3. Javier Vazquez - DIPS = 2.67 --- ERA = 3.76

4. Tim Lincecum - DIPS = 2.70 --- ERA = 1.49

5. Tim Hudson - DIPS = 2.78 --- ERA = 2.95

6. Edinson Volquez - DIPS - 2.87 --- ERA = 1.23

7. Jair Jurrjens - DIPS = 2.89 --- ERA = 3.05

8. Randy Wolf - DIPS = 2.97 --- ERA = 3.57

9. Chien-Ming Wang - DIPS = 3.12 --- ERA = 3.00

10. John Danks - DIPS = 3.26 --- ERA = 3.12

As you can see from this list, some pitchers' ERA matches well with their DIPS.

Other pitchers have quite a differential.

Javier Vazquez seems to be the only one who is getting screwed here. He usually pitches very effectively and sabermetrically is on the short end of the stick. In sum, he's a great pitcher and owners should be happy to have him as a #2 or #3 with hopes of his stats getting better as the year progresses.

Before we get carried away here, let me say this. The above pitchers are in the top 10 in DIPS. So, they are ALL pitching extremely well.

That being said, when we look at the likes of Lee, Lincecum and Volquez, their DIPS ERA's suggest they are due for their ERA and WHIP to rise.

Did we really think that their ERA's would all remain under 2.00? No. Being that they are still in the top 10 in DIPS, they are all pitching effectively and even if their ERA's rose to match their DIPS ERA's they would still be under 3.00, which we'd all be equally as happy with.

The top 10 aside, are there any pitchers who have vast differentials between their DIPS ERA and ERA?

Getting lucky and their ERA and WHIP should rise (sell)

Erik Bedard - Now, when I mean sell I don't infer that these guys will have little to no value from here on in. I do suggest matching up someone from the sell list and trading them for someone of equal value from the buy list. Bedard's ERA is 1.74 but his DIPS is 4.99, the biggest differential in the majors.

Kason Gabbard - The Texas youngster was shipped over from Boston for Gagne. His 2.18 ERA looks nice on the outside but his DIPS ERA stands at 4.70.


Fausto Carmona - A 2.60 ERA but a DIPS and ERC over 5.00 means trouble. Get rid of him now.

Brian Burres - The O's surprise has been added in many leagues. If he's still on the waiver wire in yours, leave him there. His DIPS is 4.27 while his ERA is 2.87.

Jeremy Bonderman - Bonderman. Jeremy Bonderman, is the name. His 3.86 ERA has people thinking he's on the comeback trail. Wrong. His DIPS is well over 5.00.

Jon Lester - Another guy catching people's eye is the Sox hurler. His DIPS is a run and a half higher than his ERA. I'd ditch him.

Odalis Perez - He's likely to be serviceable this year... but not this serviceable. His 3.18 ERA is quality but with an ERC and DIPS into the mid 4.00's, don't expect this trend to continue.



Unlucky so far and their ERA and WHIP should go down (buy)

Nate Robertson - He's nothing more than a middle of the pack spot starter. However, nobody wants to spot start him these days with a 6.82 ERA. His DIPS ERA is clsoer to the mid 4.00's, which is what he expect from him each year.

CC Sabathia - I admit I was wrong about him being "done." I still doubt he repeats his 2007 season and if it weren't for the contract year I'd have some other thoughts. I digress. His 7.51 ERA is ugly but his 4.51 DIPS gives us hope.

Chad Billingsley - 5.20 ERA, 3.40 DIPS. He leads the majors in k/9 so sabermetrically he's been a stud. He's a good buy low. Remember though, I see his ERA being in the 3.90 - 4.20 range this year, so don't get carried away.

Johnny Cueto - Now could be a good time, interestingly enough, to buy low. His balloon has been slightly deflated with some rough starts. While he will see bumps in the road and is likely best suited to be someone's #3 SP this year at best, his 5.14 ERA is a lot higher than both his ERC and DIPS.

Ted Lilly - Another guy in the Javier Vazquez mold, who always seems to be getting the short end of the stick. His ERA is reaching 6.00 but his DIPS is a more intriguing 4.76.

Randy Wolf - His 3.57 ERA is nice but it should be nicER. Both his ERC and DIPS are in the mid 2.00's. He's a great guy to nab if an owner doesn't think he'll maintain.