The Closer Report: Go with Gagne

By Paul Shapiro

Eric Gagne is leading the league in one category so far this season -- blown saves. That’s the one category that a closer never wants to see his name at the top of the list. But Gagne doesn’t seem to have anything to worry about. Although the right-hander has five blown saves in 14 opportunities, he is entrenched as the Brewers closer.

Over the past week, Gagne went 2-for-3 in save opportunities and his ERA went down from 6.75 to 6.14. His WHIP went up from 1.50 to 1.70, so those of you who own him should understand what you are in for in the long run.

Gagne just isn’t the same guy that was once lights out in LA with the Dodgers. He will get you strikeouts -- 17 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings. He will also keep on the edge of your seat, allowing 26 baserunners (15 hits and 10 walks) in less than 15 innings of work.

But owners should rest assured that the Canadian, who holds the record for most saves in a single season (55), is going to get chance after chance to prove that he is the right guy to close out games for the Brew Crew.

According to Adam McCalvy, Brewers Beat Reporter for MLB.com, the ninth inning belongs to Gagne. “The Brewers have been happy with Gagne so far, and you can argue that two of his four blown saves are dubious,” he said. “Corey Patterson hit a game-tying home run on April 8 in Milwaukee that landed in a party area in right field -- three years ago it would have been a warning-track out -- and then on April 22, Rickie Weeks botched an Albert Pujols double-play ball that should have ended the game. Yes, he shouldn't have allowed the Patterson homer and yes, he should have been able to recover from the Pujols thing, but those very easily could have gone the other way.”

Gagne also doesn’t have anyone breathing down his throat, vying to take his job. If Gagne imploded (which is entirely possible) or went down with injury (knock on wood), the relievers who could take his job are … “Probably [David] Riske is the backup, or Salomon Torres. Guillermo Mota is another guy with some experience closing,” McCalvy said. That seems to be the pecking order with Derrick Turnbow being optioned to Triple-A this week.

So the long and the short of it is stick with the $10 million dollar man. “Gagne is definitely the guy,” McCalvy said. “You don't pay someone $10 million and then yank him after a month.”

Here are some unbelievable stats on Gagne. Amazingly, the right-hander has only blown 15 saves in his entire career -- 186-for-201. That’s almost 93 percent. And a little known fact -- the year Gagne had 55 saves, he went 55-for-55 in save opportunities. That’s completely insane. I have nothing more to say about this guy. Goodnight Canada!

Smoltz = Saves (Again): When will John Smoltz return from the disabled list? The earliest he is eligible to return is mid-May, and when that day comes he will be in the Braves’ bullpen. Most would assume it would be as the team’s closer, and I have to agree. In the meantime stick with Manny Acosta, until otherwise noted. He is 2-for-2 in save opportunities with a 3.68 ERA and a .196 batting average against. His 10 hits allowed and 11 base on balls in 14 2/3 innings pitched scares me. The guy with the “closer stuff” is Blain Boyer. He has pitched 18 2/3 innings with 20 strikeouts, four walks and a 0.91 WHIP. If Boyer is available, you might get a few “free” saves over the next month before Smoltz returns.

Root for Rauch: With Chad Cordero out 4-6 weeks with a torn shoulder muscle, the Nationals’ closer is now and will be Jon Rauch for the remainder of the season. Rauch was dominant as the setup man last season and I don’t see him leaving the ninth inning anytime soon. He is 7-for-9 in save opportunities thus far this season and could rack up 30 saves with Cordero on the shelf. Like I said last week, “I like Rauch.” I liked him when Cordero was available to close, so how do you think I feel now?

Enough Saves To Go Around...For Now: B.J. Ryan may not have allowed an earned run yet this season, and he may be for 4-for-4 in save opportunities, but the Blue Jays’ closer still can’t pitch on consecutive days. Manager John Gibbons said it will be another two-to-three weeks before the Jays will use Ryan in that capacity. That means that, depending on the situation, anyone in the back end of Toronto’s bullpen could pick up a save. This past week it was Scott Downs, the week before that it was Jesse Carlson, and the week before that it was Jeremy Accardo. Who’s next in line? Let’s go with Jason Frasor. If Ryan feels as good as he has looked on the mound, it wouldn't surprise me if the left-hander starts pitching on back-to-back days sooner than Gibbons originally said.

Knock on Wood: Kerry Wood started May off on the wrong foot. He came into the game on May 1 against the Brewers with a 3-1 lead in ninth. Wood promptly gave up three runs on three hits and a walk to take the loss. That’s the bad news. Here’s the worse news for Wood owners. In the eighth inning of that game, Carlos Marmol recorded his eighth hold of the season, lowering his ERA to 1.29. Marmol has also struck out 28 batters in 21 innings. If Marmol is available in your league, you might want to click “Add Player.” I don’t see how those numbers can possibly hurt. My prediction: Marmol is the closer by midseason, if not sooner.

Bet on Betancourt: Rafael Betancourt blew his first save since becoming the Tribe’s closer. He has allowed five earned runs in his last three appearances (1 2/3 innings of work), but I wouldn’t worry about Betancourt just yet. Those numbers are a bit deceiving. Betancourt has given up two home runs in those games and was hurt by a Casey Blake error at third base when he blew his first save. That’s technically just two bad pitches and Indians manager Eric Wedge remains confident in his closer, particularly because Betancourt has only had three save chances in nearly three weeks. Those of you with an extra roster spot might want to start keeping a closer eye on Masa Kobayashi, the 33-year-old import from Japan, who is 2-0 on the season with a 1.72 ERA. The right-hander has been impressive and Wedge has taken notice. You should too.

Still Perfect: Eleven closers, I repeat, 11 closers have not yet blown a save this season. That list includes: Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera, Joakim Soria, Brad Lidge, Troy Percival, Matt Capps, Todd Jones, B.J. Ryan, Francisco Cordero and, last but not least, Manny Acosta. Rivera, Soria, Lidge, Percival and Ryan have yet to allow an earned run. I’d say three of these 11 closers will blow saves this week (Acosta, Lidge and Jones). And Soria will be the last closer remaining without a blown save heading into June. Get back to me next week and we’ll see where we these predictions stand.