Back in March we recommended some players to target and others to avoid. A few weeks ago I updated how our recommendations were doing and today I'm going to update how our "guys to avoid" are doing.
John Lackey - Been on the DL all year.
Dontrelle Willis - Five total innings, been on the DL all year.
Barry Zito - 0-6, 7.20 ERA, 1.95 WHIP. He needed help from teammates in carrying his large contract from the dugout to the pen.
Aaron Harang - 1-5, 3.09 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, on pace for over 200K's.
Dan Haren - 4-1, 3.12 ERA, 0.99 WHIP.
Roy Oswalt - 3-3, 5.57 ERA, 1.55 WHIP.
Scott Kazmir - 4 innings pitched, 6.75 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, been on DL most of the year.
Carlos Zambrano - 5-1, 1.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, on pace for 186 K's and 270 innings.
Gil Meche - 2-4, 5.98 ERA, 1.52 WHIP.
Vernon Wells - .281 - 19 runs - 4 HR - 22 RBI - 1 SB
Aaron Rowand - .336 - 12 - 3 - 15 - 0
Melky Cabrera - .280 - 16 - 6 - 17 - 3
Jeremy Hermida - .299 - 12 - 2 - 13 - 0
Matt Kemp - .330 - 19 - 3 - 24 - 9
Fausto Carmona - 3-1, 2.95 ERA, 1.79 WHIP
Jeremy Guthrie - 1-3, 4.06 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Scott Olsen - 4-1, 2.22 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
Bronson Arroyo - 1-4, 8.63 ERA, 1.95 WHIP
BJ Upton - .293 - 18 - 3 - 23 - 5
Noah Lowry - DL, has yet to pitch in 2008.
Clay Buchholz - 2-2, 3.71 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, K per inning.
El Duque - DL, has yet to pitch in 2008.
Rick Ankiel - .277 - 21 - 6 - 18 - 0
Troy Glaus - .228 - 9 -1 - 21 - 0
Scott Rolen - .257 - 3 -1 - 6 -1 - Spent much time on the DL so far.
Analysis
As you know, this list was not a list of people who would not be useful in 2008. This was a list of people who were recommended to avoid because it was thought that through our research they would have worse years than they had in 2007.
Some of these players I will defend my stance on while others I will pull a 180 on.
I seem to be pretty on target and will stay the course with my opinion on the following players from here on out...
Lackey, Zito, Willis, Oswalt, Kazmir, Meche, Wells, Rowand, Cabrera, Hermida, Carmona, Guthrie, Arroyo, Upton, Lowry, El Duque, Ankiel, Glaus, Rolen.
Carmona leads the league in walks and has been one of the luckiest pitchers as his WHIP is close to 2.00. He should finish with an ERA over 4.00 easily.
While Rowand, Wells, Cabrera, Hermida, and Upton are not playing poorly, they certainly aren't living up to the expectations of their owners in relation to where they were likely drafted.
Aaron Rowand's AVG of .336 is all but guaranteed to drop as his contact rate has been in the high 60's to low 70's all year long.
Upton is satisfying owners but his new lineup spot is giving him more RBI and less SB. He's also no longer eligible at 2b in most leagues, limiting his value in that sense. He will not have been worth the second round pick some year's end.
Ironically, Hermida's AVG is still close to .300, much like it was in 2007. Our research suggested a significant drop in his AVG due to a very low contact rate. He again has a 77% CR. There are always a few exceptions to the contact rate rule, but very few. The only names who annually sport low CR yet have high batting AVG are Holliday, Guerrero, Miguel Cabrera and Manny Ramirez. They are all similar in that they swing at everything but when they make contact the ball is hit a lot harder and most go for line drives.
Hermida doesn't seem to fit that prototype, so I still expect a lower AVG to come.
Melky Cabrera seems to be doing alright, but I'm still not sold.
I'm surprised to see the following...
Scott Olsen pitching so well. Last year we know he was awful, but nothing pointed to such a rebound. I never discounted his talent, but didn't see this coming. I'm still not sold and wouldn't go trading for him, but I wouldn't be surprised if he continues this success since he's young and has shown talent in the past.
I stand my ground regarding...
Dan Haren, Aaron Harang, and Carlos Zambrano. I admit right now that of the 25 players not to target, Haren, Lackey and Harang were my three ballsiest picks and regardless of how they do from here on in, I will stand by that statement. They were all #1 SP studs last year.
Harang could strikeout 200+ again and Haren could have an ERA around 3.50. However, their wear and tear as per the 3500 Club still make me weary. I also realize that they could hit the wall in 2009 as well. So, don't be surprised if these two have solid years as it was quite risky for me to go against their success. If they do go down you can thank me like you did for John Lackey, who was equally as risky a call to go against in March.
Carlos Zambrano is an injury waiting to happen. Just wait.
I pull a 180 on...
I will pull a 180 on ONE player out of the 25 to avoid. That player is Matt Kemp.
He's on pace for 45 SB, which is over 30 more than his AVG in the minors. So, admittedly that should be a surprise to all.
He moved up a lot in the lineup which is a big difference from sharing time (Pierre, Jones, Kemp, Ethier) as it appeared would be likely in March. With additional AB and extended PT, he's on pace for 93 runs and 117 RBI.
His 73% CR from last year made me think his .340 AVG would drove below .290. Again, he has a .330 AVG and a 73% CR.
While Hermida doesn't fit the bill of a Holliday, Guerrero, Cabrera or Manny... Kemp does.
Kemp could be the new version of that foursome as a guy who makes little contact, but hits the ball hard and hits a lot of line drives in the process.
If Kemp continues this pace, he will be a second round pick in 2008 or even a trendy late first rounder.
I wouldn't go mortgaging the farm for him nor would I trade more proven talent for him, but he's looking like a great bet from here on in.
How are your teams doing with/without this group of players?
What are your thoughts on these 25 when posted in March? Now?
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
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6 comments:
I didn't see your list until after I drafted, and I was upset to see Upton and Kemp on it, but I wasn't too worried because Upton was a third rounder for me and Kemp was my fourth outfielder (now he is starting and Corey Hart is on the pine).
I was convinced by most of your list, except for Jeremy Guthrie. Since his value wasn't extremely high it didn't take too much to get him on draft day, and with the right match up I think he is a good SP option.
His WHIP is 1.24 and he just pitched very well against the Angels. I think he will improve his acceptable 2:1 k/bb ratio and his ~5.3 k/9.
I traded Harang in my keeper league after reading the 3500 Pitch Club post. Despite his start, I still happy about the move. Even though Harang has never complained of arm problems, after reading your research on the 3500 Pitch Club, I feel like a Lackey-type injury is going to occur sooner rather than later.
Not drinking the 3500 Club kool aid myself. Harang is a horse. I would love to have him on my team.
What about Clay Buchholz? Is he doing about what you expected?
"Harang is a horse. I would love to have him on my team."
Agreed. Some guys can endure a lot. It is not backed up with data, like GOTOS is so good at, but Harang's delivery just seems a lot smoother than Haren and Zambrano.
I heeded the advice on those two, but until proven wrong, I think I am going to assume Harang is okay.
I neglected to mention Clay Buchholz, which was an error on my part. Like Melky Cabrera, I'm on the fence and need to see some more before I make up my mind. I wouldn't go trading for him nor would I move him at this point.
Harang and Haren are two guys that I don't expect people to hop on the bandwagon that suggests they will get injured this year. Personally to avoid the risk of that, I selected similar pitchers of equal value instead.
Guthrie is not pitching poorly, but he's not going to much of a contributer.
An ERA of 4.00, 9-11 wins and 150 K's is mediocre. By placing him on this list, I was suggesting that he won't improve on 2007, rather at best, repeat.
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