Fantasy Phenoms Is Here!!!

We at Greener on the Other Side would like to take this opportunity to thank all of our loyal readers for continuing to come back and read what we have to say.

It is also, at this time, that we take tremendous pride in introducing our newest venture....

WWW.FANTASYPHENOMS.COM IS HERE!!!


We hope you enjoy our expansion, and continue to consume our content. We have one goal, and that is to turn fantasy players, into fantasy champions!

See you there!

-Jason, Brett and the crew at Fantasy Phenoms.

Roundtable

Adam Ronis of Newsday hosted this week's roundtable.. It can be seen here.

Wavering on the Wire- 5.15.08

Pedro Feliz – For years with the Giants, he was a useful fantasy player because he basically had eligibility at almost every position, with power to boot. This year, he was signed with Philly to be their everyday third basemen, unfortunately got off to a terrible start. For April he batted .218 with 3 home runs & 10 RBI. Since May 1^st though, he’s been hitting .286 with 2 HR's & 6 RBIs. Over the past 4 seasons Feliz has averaged 21 HR's and 83 RBIs, which are respectable numbers from a 3B. Plus, playing in Citizens Bank Park should only help his numbers. So if he’s out their, make a run at him. Recommendation – Pick up in all formats

Daniel Cabrera – Cabrera has been one of those guys who can burn you at any moment. One start he’ll strikeout 12 and the next start he’ll walk 12. His control has been a mess for years, but recently it’s looking like he’s becoming more of a pitcher than a thrower. He’s won 4 of his last 5 decisions including a win over the lethal Red Sox lineup last night. Maybe Leo Mazzone’s teachings are starting to pay dividends. His control still isn’t the best and he’s not going to do wonders for your WHIP, but for spot starts and help in strikeouts, he could be your guy. Recommendation – Pick up in all formats

Ronny Paulino – Since Ryan Doumit has landed himself on the DL with a fractured thumb, Paulino now becomes the primary backstop in Pittsburgh. Doumit’s injury is very unfortunate considering the start he got off to, but Paulino will benefit. He’s a career .282 hitter, which for a catcher isn’t bad. So if you had Doumit or are in need of an everyday catcher, pick up Paulino. Recommendation – Pick up in NL Only and two catcher leagues.

Freddie Bynum – Bynum was activated from the 15 day DL and was named the starting SS for the Orioles over struggling Luis Hernandez. This by no means is an earth shattering move, but Bynum does have some speed that can be useful. He stole 8 bases in just 96 at bats last year. However, in that same frame he struck out 30 times and walked only twice. That’s certainly not that appealing, but with the recent trend of starting SS going down (i.e. Tulowitzki, Furcal, Keppinger, etc) he can be useful in spot starts. Recommendation – Pick up in AL Only and Deep Mixed

Blaine Boyer – At first glance, Boyer's numbers don’t jump off the page at you, but if you dig a little deeper you see there’s some value there. The Atlanta bullpen is more or less a mess right now. Their opening day closer, Rafael Soriano, is on the DL with elbow tendonitis. His initial replacement Peter Moylan is out all year after having Tommy John surgery. Current closer Manny Acosta only has two saves so far this year. That really hasn’t been his fault though. The Braves really haven’t put him in position to get saves. At the same time though he’s really been less than impressive anyway. His strikeout to walk ratio is basically 1:1. Now there is talk of John Smoltz coming back as the closer and Soriano, who is rehabbing, could be back soon as well.

However, considering their injury histories, I have a feeling one or both will go down again. So this is where Boyer jumps in. Like I said, at first glance his stats are nothing special, but if you break it down his 4.18 ERA is really being driven by two or three bad appearances. The rest of the 21 games he played in he has been stellar. He’s striking out over a batter an inning (25/23.2) and more importantly he has only given up 4 walks. So he’ll help you with Whip and Ks and he even can pick up a save or two like he did last night. Recommendation- Pick up in NL Only and Deep Mixed Leagues

Jody Gerut/Chase Headley – The Padres released Jim Edmonds last Friday and called up Jody Gerut which was a bit of a head scratcher considering what Headley has been doing so far in AAA. After a slow start, Headley has really picked it up, averaging .285 with 4 HR’s & 16 RBI. However, Gerut does have the starting gig right now and can be useful in the right formats. Recommendation - Pick up Gerut in NL Only Leagues and keep an eye out on if/when Headley is promoted to add him in all formats.

Jay Bruce – It’s no secret that Bruce is widely considered one of the top prospects in all of baseball, and so far he’s living up to the hype. He’s batting .366 with 8 HR's, 33 RBI & 7 SB's for AAA-Louisville. Right now he is being blocked by a number of guys on the major league roster, but rumors are flying that he will be up soon. It’s a situation where something has to give for them to give him a shot. That situation might be dealing Ken Griffey Jr. back to Seattle. Seattle’s offense is struggling and they have been linked to Griffey for awhile now. If that trade goes down or they have an injury to Patterson, Dunn, or Griffey, we could see Bruce on his way up. At the extreme end of it he could be this years Ryan Braun/Hunter Pence. Recommendation – Stash him on your bench if he’s still available in all formats

By: Chris Lynch

Contact Sport

Today I'm going to go over some of the usual suspects who have stellar BA's that are supported by their CR. The first list is obvious and though their AVG's might be too good to be true they will not have any problems being at the top of the charts all year long.

The Studs

Chipper Jones: .406 AVG, 90% CR. Absolutely insane. Finishing the year over .350 shouldn't be out of the question at this rate.

Lance Berkman: .393 AVG 88% CR Enfuego. Avg too high to sustain but CR ensures he'll be top of the charts in September.

Furcal, Pujols, V-Mart, Tejada: All have an AVG between .366-.340 and CR's between 88-92%.

The above guys should keep up high AVG's for the foreseeable future.

Next Group are guys who are hitting very well but one might wonder...
Is it for real?

Xavier Nady: .340 BA, 80% CR. Though the CR isn't horrible, it shouldn't be enough to sustain that high of an AVG. Expect a move back down to the norm. Nady is a career .270 hitter. He could better his career AVG but I wouldn't expect a finishing AVG of .300.

Aaron Rowand: .336 BA, 74% CR. This one is easy. Decline to happen. Career .288 AVG. He could still be around his career AVG though. But his contact could use some improvement. Especially to carry at this pace.

Ryan Theriot: .333 BA, 90% CR. Well looky here the career .286 hitter is looking like he can stay above .300. Who doesn't love "The Riot"?

Justin Upton: .326 BA, 71% CR. The rate doesn't sustain the AVG. He should most certainly come back down to Earth a bit. The one thing he does have going for him is that his brother somehow inexplicably is able to hold a higher AVG than his CR supports. Whats with these Uptons anyway? BABIP masters?

Conor Jackson: .325 BA, 92% CR. As you were Conor. You've been on the good side of this list for the last couple of years now. Keep up the good work young man, you're gonna be a star!

Kevin Youklis: .313 BA, 84% CR. Reasonable enough. He might dip to the .285-.290 range but i don't think we'll hear any griping from owners.

Kosuke Fukudome: .312 BA, 81% CR. Should regress a bit, but I have faith in his hitting background to think that he stays in the .290-.300 range.

Ryan Church: .319 BA, 75% CR. Well, this hot item should see a drop in BA. To shop or not to shop? That is the question.

Ian Kinsler: .316 BA, 85% CR. That's my boy blue! Maybe not a .316 hitter all year but the hopes are high for a .285 and up. Right on or more than owners were banking on. Really has taken his leadoff role to heart.

Geovany Soto: .315 BA, 73% CR. Oh, my favorite one so far. I didn't draft him when I wanted to and I'm looking for anything to make me feel better. This is a start. The CR doesn't support the AVG. Small decline ahead. I still should've drafted him when I had the chance. Doh!

Matt Kemp: .313 BA, 73% CR. Not gonna cut it. Drop-off ensuing. Still is kind of a freak at this stat though. Maybe he hung out with the Upton Bros. when he was little.

Casey Kotchman: .309 BA, 93% CR. Yahtzee! We have a winner.

Nate McClouth: .307 BA, 87% CR. Looks like we are here to stay.

Josh Hamilton: .306 BA, 85% CR. Decent chance of keeping it up, though .285-.290 would be more reasonable.

An AVG likely to increase...

Robinson Cano: .188 BA, 89% CR. Beam me up Scotty!

Jose Guillen: .207 BA, 76% CR. Though AVG inevitably has to climb the 76% CR will put a cap on it. .270 this year? He still has to produce to get there though.

Gary Sheffield: .208 BA, 76% CR. A climb? Sure. To the top of the mountain? No.

Carlos Pena: .209 BA, 66% CR. Ohh. Chicks dig the long ball though Carlos.

David Ortiz: .240 BA, 84% CR. Unless the knee is going to ruin the whole season, the AVG should climb up above the knees...or something like that?

Ryan Garko: .231 BA, 85% CR. Scour the wire in case he's there. Numbers shall improve.

Ichiro: .282 BA, 92% CR. .282 is low for this guy. Hold on your ship is about to ascend...quickly.

Delmon Young: .266 BA, 82% CR. With your amount of HR you better improve that AVG. Yes I'm bitter.

Vladimir Guerrero: .271 BA, .84% CR. A rise would be no surprise.

Eric Byrnes: .221 BA, 85% CR. Make sure to pop your ears as you go up.

Ryan Howard: .171 BA, 61% CR. Yes a rise from .171 is certain but any thoughts of this guy not hurting your AVG are fantasies at this point. Man I love when GOTOS is right. Good call Brett and Jay.

Rickie Weeks: .188 BA, 82% CR. Half-way respectable CR. Obviously an incline is on the way, but how much for this streaky hitter? 82% can push him above .260??

Mark Teixeira: .261 BA, 87% CR. AVG will rise. Promise.

Prince Fielder: .241 BA, 83% CR. See Teixeira.

Stephen Drew: .264 BA, 86% CR. Yup, a spike is on the way

Ryan Zimmerman: .239 BA, 81% CR. Don't bail now, a little better days are on the way.

Chris B Young: .238 BA, 70% CR. Apparently this is what you get. Hope you like it.

Mark Reynolds: .230 BA, 61% CR. Ouch! Thus the term sell-high. Well past that point now.

High and Dry

Check them out...

Keppinger Fractures Kneecap

An unfortunate event for GOTOS readers and myself, who had him as my active SS/MI in all 6 of my leagues.

From a medical standpoint... Keppinger could miss 4-6 weeks.

Minority Report – 5/13

Top Prospects

J.A. Happ – SP – PHI

Happ is a 6 foot 5 inch lefty with one heckuva change-up. So far 2008 has been a success, as Happ leads the International league with 55 strikeouts in just 46 innings. His last four starts have seen him pitch 27 innings with 31 strikeouts while allowing just two runs. Happ has been a bit of a hard luck pitcher to date with an 0-4 record while posting a low 2.72 ERA. Happ should be next in line for SP’s in Philadelphia’s system and will earn a shot if he keeps this up. Happ profiles long term as a good #3 SP on a competitive team. He has always been a strikeout per inning type so if he can keep his walks down he’ll have a major league future. He should get a shot after the all-star break if he keeps up his current pace.

Ryan Tucker – SP – FLA

Tucker is young for AA at 21 years-old, but you wouldn’t know it from his starts so far. In eight starts he has a ridiculous 0.97 ERA with 43 strikeouts in 46 innings. Both left-handed and right-handed batters are hitting below .200 against him, and it appears the former first rounder is starting to fulfill his immense upside. His fastball works regularly in the 93-95 range and can touch 98 with late movement. He has a solid change-up and is working on a third pitch. Tucker’s fastball will have some thinking ‘elite closer’ but I think Florida is going to stick with him in the rotation until proven otherwise. Olsen and Miller have a lock on their spots in the Florida rotation but other than them the Marlins are in need of an arm like Tucker. I think he can help in 2008 and wouldn’t be shocked to see him called up after the all-star break. He is a guy to definitely keep your eye on.

Reader Requests

Carlos Rosa – SP – KC

Rosa is having a magnificent start to 2008. In eight starts he has managed a 1.20 ERA with 42 strikeouts in 45 innings. Rosa has a .189 batting average against, while allowing just two homeruns. One of KC’s top 3 pitching prospects Carlos was just promoted to AAA and appears likely to contribute to KC’s staff by 2009. If all goes well in AAA Rosa may be a prospect for a September call up, but I don’t see Drayton Moore wasting any Major League eligibility this year.

Daniel McCutchen – SP – NYY

McCutchen is not one of the Yankees' top prospects, and he has already served a 50 game suspension for violating the minor league drug policy. To top it all he didn’t start professionally until after his fifth year at Oklahoma, so he isn’t the youngest prospect in AA (25 to be exact.) With all that against him, the Yankees organization still holds this guy in high regard and he is rewarding them this year. McCutchen has a 2.15 ERA in 46 innings with 43 strikeouts. His BA against is .192 and he has a 4/1 K/BB ratio. The Yankees staff is in shambles, and so far the AAA staff hasn’t faired well in NY. It won’t be long before the Yanks reach into AA and if McCutchen keeps it up he could get a look. He’s not a guy to jump on right away, but playing in front of the usually vaunted Yankees lineup makes McCutchen worth watching.

Blast from the Past

Jason Berken – SP – BAL

Berken was the ace of the Clemson staff as a sophomore until injury struck. He had Tommy John Surgery and has since recovered the top end stuff that had many talking ace in 2004. Berken is a true “pitcher” in the sense that he has knows what he’s doing on the mound. He’s not a thrower and has shown to be pretty durable as a pro. His arm appears more alive this year and it shows in the results: 3.26 ERA 36K 4BB and only 1HR against. Berken’s 36/4 K/BB ratio leads the Eastern League. If his fastball can stay in the 91-94 MPH range, his quality change-up may allow him to be a successful major league starter. He’s worth monitoring for those in deeper dynasty leagues as the O’s are searching for a 5 man rotation for 2008 and beyond.

By: Pete Billingsley

Adenhart Gets Win, Gets Sent Down

Nick Adenhart got his first MLB victory just in the nick of time Monday night against the Pale Hose heroes.

Adenhart concluded his rocky stint in the bigs with a victory and then was promptly sent back to Salt-Lake for some more seasoning to make room for 3,500 clubber John Lackey.

Young Adenharts line read like this: 5.2 IP, 9 HA, 4 ER, 3 BB and a K. And oh yea, the W.

Well hopefully the Salt-Lake seasoning does him good, because catcher of the Pale Hose heroes A.J. Pierzynski had this to say about the 21-year-old hurler, "He's got good stuff and he's got a chance to be pretty good...he got a little wild here and there, but other than that he's got a good curve ball, good changeup and good life on his fastball."

Thats what I'm talkin about A.J.! Three plus pitches and a contending team. I can't wait until next time. I love any pitcher that has good life on a fastball and a solid change.

To be continued...

Zito Continues To Stink

We won't spend much time here. I just thought I'd point out that when pitching in a no-decision is supposed to show signs of improvement then your seriously hurtin and most definetely acting as the most over-paid player in possibly all of sports. Sorry Barry, I truly do miss your Oaktown A days.

Come back anytime now.

Unfortunately thats not going to happen, but for stats sakes, here's Barry's final line for Monday against the Stros'.

6 IP, 7 HA, 3 ER, ONLY 1 BB and 2 K's. He did give up a bomb to Lance Berkman but at this date in time who would'nt.

Go Barry Go!

Clement Hits!

Well, if your anything like me, you've been patiently waiting for any sort of sign that Jeff Clement can indeed help your fantasy team this year.

We got a small glimpse of some wood on ball Monday night. Sweet.

Seriously, thats a big start.

Clement had come into the night hitting a whopping .125 in 32 AB's this year with the big club. It really has been that bad too, Clement had gone 4 of 32 with 15 strikouts to only 6 walks and no extra-base hits. Ouch. Thank goodness for an apparent long leash.

Tonights line read: 2 for 5 with a single, a double and two runs scored.

He finally got that first extra-base hit and only struck out once, though it was in a big spot in the top of ninth, where it could've been him and not Kenji Johjima that tied it up in the ninth with a big fly.

As you can tell I really have wishful thinking for this guy. Nonetheless, we'll take any glimmer of hope and quite frankly I'm happy about it. There will be more to come for us and Clement, stay tuned.

Clement's teammate continued to show his consistently, inconsistent power bat with a two-run bomb in the eighth.

Yes, fellow rookie Wladimir Balentien showed the pop that has him getting regular right field starts for the M's. His two-run shot, was his fourth homer in 46 AB's in his brief stay so far in Seattle. He has also struck out 14 times in those 46 AB's to remind us that he is still very raw, but that kind of power is welcome to any fantasy squad.

Good job "Wha-Lad!"

I know it's pronounced Vlad, but wheres the Berman-esque fun in that?

Kershaw Looming?

Troy over at Daily RotoPickups has some good insight on Clayton Kershaw. Check his stuff out.

The Closer Report: Setup for Failure

By Paul Shapiro

Since when do closers remove themselves from the closer role? Isn’t that manager’s job? Well, this happened not once, but twice this week. Both Jason Isringhausen and Eric Gagne asked for a “mental break” from their respective team’s closer role.

On Friday, Isringhausen racked up his Major League-leading fifth blown save, a distinction that he shares with Gagne and one that they would both rather not have. After this performance, Isringhausen suggested a meeting that included himself, manager Tony La Russa, pitching coach Dave Duncan and general manager John Mozeliak. During that meeting, Izzy removed himself from the Cardinals’ closer role.

"It needed to be done," he told reporters. "It's a mental break more than anything. … I'm just getting sick of embarrassing myself and letting my team down. … They can't keep sending me out there when I'm pitching the way I'm pitching.

Isringhausen, who actually leads the National League with 11 saves, compared the way he has been pitching to that of “a second grader.” He blew just two saves in 34 chances last season.

So that leaves the ninth inning for setup man-turned-closer, Ryan Franklin. He has two saves in the past week in two chances, but Franklin doesn't have what most experts would call “typical closer stuff.” For now, he is clearly the go-to-guy for saves, but the Cards’ skipped Tony La Russa said Russ Springer would also be considered in save situations. Personally, I like Kyle McClellan. He has thrown 19 1/3 innings, with 16 strikeouts, a 2.79 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.

The truth about the Cards’ closer situation is that once Izzy gets his head back on straight, he’ll be closing games again. This will probably occur by the end of the month.

Now, onto Gagne. This guy cracks me up. Before Brewers’ manager Ned Yost could pull the Canadian from the closer role, Gagne did it himself.

He came into Saturday’s game, in a non-save situation, and coughed up two runs to move his ERA to 6.89. After the game, Gagne said that he no longer wants to be called the Brewers closer.

"I don’t deserve that ninth inning right now,” he told reporters.

Gagne, who signed a one-year, $10 million deal this offseason, is legitimately stealing money from the Brewers.

The Brewers will use a closer-by-committee approach while Gagne tries to work out the kinks. If that means he starts juicing again, then this guy might be able to “save” his career. (I crack myself up sometimes.) Otherwise, look into picking up the likes of Salomon Torres, David Riske, Guillermo Mota, Brian Shouse and Mitch Stetter. There are almost too many names to go around for any of them to have value.

On Sunday, Torres came into the game to protect a 5-2 lead. He got the first two outs, allowed a run and was then removed with two runners on and a left-hander due up. Shouse then picked up the infamous one-out save.

But a save is a save. And, you never know, the Brewers could call up Derrick Turnbow from the Minors.

You know what’s so amazing about all of this? This all happened during a series between, you guessed it, the Cardinals and the Brewers in Milwaukee. Coming into Monday night’s series finale, there have been two blown saves in three games and a loss for both Izzy and Gagne.

Next in line: The closer role is entirely volatile. Here are some setup men to keep an eye on in the upcoming weeks.

Cubs – Carlos Marmol (23 IP, 2 SV, 30 K, 1.17 ERA, 0.70 WHIP)
Braves – Blaine Boyer (21 1/3 IP, 0 SV, 22 K, 4.22 ERA, 0.84 WHIP)
D-backs – Chad Qualls (19 2/3 IP, 1 SV, 20 K, 2.75 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)
Padres – Heath Bell (20 2/3 IP, 0 SV, 14 K, 2.61 ERA, 1.11 WHIP)

Closers of the future: For those of you who want to look into the future, here are four setup guys that should end up with at least 150 saves in their career. These are their career stats coming into Sunday night’s games.

Dodgers – Jonathan Broxton (187 IP, 5 SV, 239 K, 2.89 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)
Yankees – Joba Chamberlain (39 1/3 IP, 1 SV, 51 K, 1.37 ERA, 0.84 WHIP)
Mariners – Brandon Morrow (69 2/3 IP, 0 SV, 73 K, 3.88 ERA, 1.61 WHIP)
Tigers – Joel Zumaya (117 IP, 2 SV, 124 K, 2.62 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)

The Swami Says … I predicted last week that three of the 11 closers without a blown save would do just that – blow a save. I was close. Two closers, Jonathan Papelbon and Troy Percival, blew saves, but Papelbon blew two. That equals three, so I’ll look at that as a moral victory. That leaves nine closers who haven’t yet blown a save this season. Mariano Rivera, Joakim Soria, Brad Lidge and B.J. Ryan still haven’t allowed an earned run. Billy Wagner is in that boat as well, but he blew a save on an unearned run. And I still stand by what I said last week, “Soria will be the last closer remaining without a blown save heading into June.”

Still Getting The Dust Off?

This from Rotoworld....

Though Corey Patterson was supposed to be at the plate, David Ross batted out of order in the ninth inning of an 8-3 loss to the Mets on Sunday.

What is this, Little League? Per MLB rules, Ross has to complete his at-bat to be ruled out, and the outcome of his at-bat is then discarded with no runners allowed to advance. The Mets allowed him to do so, and since he lined out to right there was little harm done. Ross was the batter listed in the order after Patterson, so he was forced to come back to the plate for his 'real' at-bat and Patterson was charged the out. Ross singled after returning to the batter's box. There's almost too many jokes here for us to enjoy. Corey Patterson making outs even when he's not at-bat is just one of them. As if their wasn't already overwhelming evidence that Dusty Baker is a horrible manager, this just adds more fuel to the fire.

Home/Road Splits - Pitchers

While we start guys like Peavy, Santana, Webb and Lincecum (that's right, Lincecum) every week regardless of whom they play against, some pitchers enjoy the confines of their home and others like pitching on the road.


Start 'Em Next Week


Jonathan Sanchez - His ERA on the road is close to 10.00. In friendly San Francisco his ERA is 1.16. Start him next week when he gets the DH-less White Sox.

John Danks - Two starts and both are on the road where John finds his success. Despite on overall 3.18 ERA, Danks' ERA at home is 4.64 while on the road it is 1.47.

John Lannan - Now here's a real testament to risk. Lannan shows a 1.40 road ERA, where he has one start. His one start is against the Mets. However, his struck out 11 Mets in his last outing. Do you play the numbers game or do you play the logic game?

John Maine - He's got one start... against Lannan. Maine has a 2.55 home ERA. Could this be a 1-0 event?

John, I mean Shawn Chacon - After all those Johns it was becoming first nature. Shawn Chacon's road ERA is 2.77, which warrants a start in Texas. Don't bother with him at home though where his ERA is just south of 5.00.

Hiroki Kuroda - He's been awesome this year on the road with a 2.81 ERA. He's in Anaheim where apparently none of their hitters can hit. (See yesterday's article).

Mark Hendrickson - With a 2.57 ERA when not in Miami, he's a good bet in Cincinatti next week where he'll face lefties Dunn, Griffey and Votto.



Sit 'Em Next Week


Nick Blackburn - He's got a 1.66 ERA in 3 home starts but on the road his ERA is at 5.66. Sit him when he plays in Coors next week.

Odalis Perez - He's got two starts next week but both are on the road, where he sports a 4.29 ERA. His ERA at home is 2.66.

Boof Bonser - His home ERA sits pretty at 1.50. Unfortunately he'll be on the road this week in Toronto, where his ERA is over 6.00.

Jon Garland - Despite his great performance against Tampa this week, he's a sit for next week. Garland will be at home in Anaheim where after four starts his ERA is over 6.00. Start him when he pitches on the road though, where his ERA is under 2.00.

Micah Owings - Yes, he's in line for two starts, but both come at home where his ERA sits just below 5.00. If he were on the road I'd recommend him where his 3.57 ERA is much easier on the eye.

Ryan Dempster - Overall his ERA is 2.70 but he doesn't like pitching in Wrigley, where his one start comes next week. His road ERA stands at 0.90, but at home it is 4.30.

Daniel Cabrera - He has one start at home against the Red Sox. His road ERA is 2.17, but at home, where he is next week, his ERA is over 6.00.

Tracking Clement, Balentien

The struggles continued Saturday for the Mariners and young sluggers Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien.

I love that spelling by the way. It's pronounced Vladimir, but if your like me you can pronounce it, Wah-Lad! Signifying the sound the bat makes when he hits one of his towering shots. It's fun, I suggest trying it at home.

Anyway, the two young bucks suffered some more growing pains facing strikeout machine Javier Vazquez. They both struck out in there first two at-bats against Vazquez with Clement being the only one to get a third AB against him and fortunately drew a walk.

Balentien did manage a single in his third AB against the Pale Hose's pen but grounded into a DP in the ninth to conclude his night.

1-4 with 2 k's.

Clement followed up his walk with a fly out to center to conclude his plate trips. At least he hit the ball into the field the last time.

He went 0-3 with 2 k's and a walk.

Well, the K rates aren't pretty but at least it looks like they are going to have a long leash to succeed. The Mariners need to pick it up as a whole and that should help the young guys settle in and start making some more contact. We've still gotta love their futures.

Carry on.

Following Eveland

Dana Eveland seemed to pitch pretty decent on Saturday, but still got tagged for the loss in Arlington.

He gave up a run scoring double in the first and a two run shot in the third, both to Milton Bradley, and was credited with his third loss of the season.

His final line read:

6 IP, 6 HA, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 k on only 90 pitches.

One of his two walks was intentional and the two mistakes he made happened to be against a hot-hitting Bradley...I'm still diggin him.

Lincecum Is Dominant

Super-star Tim Lincecum pitched a shutdown type of game Saturday against the Phillies. His final line read:

8 IP, 4 HA, 2 ER, 1 BB and 8 K's!

Lincecum only had to throw 105 pitches and was in control the whole way. It didn't hurt that he got about the best run support that you can expect from the Fremont...I mean...San Francisco Giants. He did give up two bombs but other than that it was all him. He hit 97 mph on the gun and struck out the side on eleven pitches in the first.

Stud.

Sunday Pick 'Em

Mike Musch, writer for the Poughkeepsie Journal, has organized a Sunday Pick 'Em amongst several fantasy websites.

Rules:

Player Selection:
Rotating Order on a Weekly Basis
No one player can be selected twice
No player in the Yahoo! Big Board can be selected (essentially the top 50 players).

Scoring system:
Hitters-
1 point for every base (i.e. single=1 point, double=2 point, etc)
1 point for a run
1point for an RBI
1 point for a SB

Pitchers-
3 points for W
5 points for CG
3 points for SV
1 point for 2IP
-1 point for ER
1 point for K

Here is who get selected and the order they were selected in (both pitcher and hitter are selected at the same time):

Brett Greenfield, Greener on the Other Side- Jair Jurrjens and Adrian Gonzalez

To see who everyone else picked, view the rest of the article here.

Home/Road Splits - Hitters

While there are certain sluggers you start each week regardless of how many games they play or whom they are against, there are some players who hit much better at home or on the road.


Players To Start This Week


Justin Upton - Upton's .240 road AVG is awful but he bats .417 at home where he has 7 games next week.

Alex Rios - He's been slumping, but is nobody to take out of your lineup. He's batting .340 on the road this year with 11 RBI and 5 SB. He gets 7 road games next week.

Kosuke Fukudome - He's batting nearly .500 in Wrigley this year and he'll be there all week.

Fred Lewis - He's in SF all week and he bats .400 there. He makes a good spot start.

Mark DeRosa - He has 15 RBI and a .375 AVG in Wrigley and he'll join teammate Kosuke there for all of his games.

Adrian Gonzalez - How can you argue with .387 with 7 homers and 18 RBI away from Petco? Teammates Giles and Kouzmanoff make good starts next week as well.

Xavier Nady - He's got 6 on the road next week and bats .391 outside of Pittsburgh. Three homers and 18 RBI add to his stats away from home and make him a good start.



Players To Bench This Week


Christian Guzman - Not only have 11 of his 15 RBI come at home, but he bats .348 in Washington. His .270 road average is quite empty and he's got 7 on the road next week.

Hunter Pence - Batting .220 on the road with no homers doesn't bode well with 7 outside of Houston.

Felipe Lopez - 11 of his 12 RBI have come in Washington. Like teammate Guzman, he's one to avoid with all his games on the road next week.

Jason Bay - Six road games don't look good for Jason as he's got one homer, 3 RBI and a .230 AVG when he's not playing at home.

Carlos Quentin - Yeah he's crushing right now, but he bats 100 pts higher at home than on the road. His .220 road AVG is unlikely to help you out next week when he packs his bags for seven.

Jayson Werth - He bats below the Mendoza Line at home, where he'll play all of his games next week.

Anaheim Angels - Kotchman, Aybar, Guerrero and Matthews all hit significantly better on the road than at home. Unfortunately all of their games next week come on the road.

Minority Report – May 7, 2008

Recent Calls Up

Glen Perkins – SP – MIN

Perkins will be called up to start Saturday versus the Red Sox. I wouldn’t suggest picking him up and starting him this weekend, but I do suggest watching closely. Minnesota has a very unstable rotation at this point and a few good starts could get Perkins a spot in the Twins rotation. Perkins has not given up more than three earned runs in any start this year in AAA and on April 26^th pitched a two-hit shutout while striking out seven. He has 27 strikeouts in 33 innings with a .220 batting average against. He is dominating right-handed batters to the tune of a .209 BA against as well. The only red flag I see is that he has 19 walks in 33 innings. Watch his start Saturday, and if he does well, react accordingly. Perkins doesn’t have much left to prove in the minors at this point.

Top Prospect

David Price – SP – TB

Price is now officially “back” from the disabled list and I’m sure everybody would like to see why he went #1 overall in this past year’s draft. While he has yet to play for Single-A, he did make his first “extended” Spring Training appearance yesterday. He looked good based on the numbers. He allowed two hits and had four strikeouts in three innings. He did allow a run but managed 47 pitches without incident which is a good sign for his first start back. Price will be on the fast track and should be a September call-up if all else goes well this year. Price is an electric lefty whom I had as the best pitcher and #2 overall talent in last year’s draft, behind Catcher Matt Wieters. If you’re in a dynasty league and Price was passed over due to the minor injury in Spring Training, I’d claim Price now. He will be helping the Rays to 1^st in the AL East in 2009. Did I just type Rays and 1^st in the same sentence? Weird……

Requests from Readers

Carlos Carrasco – SP – PHI

Carrasco is fairing much better in AA this year then he did 2007. He is Philadelphia’s top prospect, in my opinion, and has a very high ceiling. So far in AA ball, he has amassed 39 strikeouts in 36 innings with a .234 BA against. He dominates lefties, who are hitting below the Mendoza line against him, while right handed batters have done much better with a .273 BA against. However, take out his lone awful start of the year against New Britain, when he allowed 6 ER in 5 IP, and Carrasco has a 2.03 ERA with a 1.03 Whip. Carrasco just turned 21 this year this will be his first full year in the advanced minors. With that said, he is Philly’s best option to turn to when any one of Kendrick, Moyer, or Eaton prove they can’t cut if for a playoff caliber team. Carrasco has the ability to be a #2 fantasy SP this year due to his K rate.

Lance Broadway – SP – CHW

Broadway is a former top prospect who is starting to realize his vast potential. While he may not be the strikeout king some thought he’d be, he is turning into a solid starting option. Lance turns 25 this year and is due for his extended ‘cup o coffee’ if you will. He is next in line in Chicago and currently has a 1.10 ERA with a sub 1.00 Whip for AAA-Charlotte. He has a BA against of .197 and is killing right-handed batters who are hitting a lowly .172 against. He has improved his walk rate from 2007 where he had 78 walks in 155 innings and now has only 12 walks in 41 innings. Monitor Broadway and if any White Sox starters get hurt or struggle for an extended period, pick Lance up in a hurry.

Blast from the Past (2007 at least)

Jeremy Sowers – SP – CLE

Remember Jeremy? He was everybody’s favorite young lefty for Cleveland last year; a top prospect that didn’t cut it his first call-up to the show. Will he make it back? I think he will and it just may not be with Cleveland, who has a very strong rotation for 2008. Sowers is pitching great in AAA with a 2.21 ERA, 1.12 Whip, and .209 BA against. So far he has been equally tough against LH and RH batters and has struck out 24 in 36 innings. Sowers will never be an ace, but should be a nice #3 SP for a good team down the road. He will likely only be a back end of the rotation starter in fantasy baseball, as he doesn’t have the K rate to be a 1, 2 or 3. Keep an eye out for Sowers if Cleveland has any more injuries or if he gets traded mid-season. He should provide good ratio stats and if he makes it to a good team, with a good pitchers park, he should be quite productive. He’s a poor man’s Tom Glavine mixed with Jamie Moyer, just a whole lot younger.

By: Pete Billingsley

D-Cab Tempts Again

Daniel Cabrera had an enticing fantasy line on Thursday night.

9 IP, 3 HA, 1 ER, 1BB, 7 K and a 18/2 GB/FB rate.

One walk! Wow! His previous start he had seven walks!

Here's what coach Dave Trembley had to say after the game, as reported by CBS Sportsline, "Thats the best I've seen him pitch...In previous times, he'd spin out of control and he doesn't do it anymore. He keeps his focus. He Keeps his poise. He gets himself back in rythm. He goes back to pitching. He's not a thrower. Thats the big difference."

Maybe thats the case, but he still sports that horrible K/BB rate of 1.4/1 in 33.1 IP this year.

He has chewed up some innings and on occasion looks like he can control his ball a little bit, but we're gonna need to see some consistency before anything gets a little too carried away here.

Nonetheless, I guess he still merits a little attention.

More Chances For Clement, Balentien

Two obstacles for playing time are currently being avoided by Seattle youngsters Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien.

CBS.Sportsline reported that Brad Wilkerson was given his unconditional release Thursday and Jose Vidro missed his third straight game with back spasms.

This is just the kind of action fantasy fanatics like ourselves want to see when we need an uninterrupted view of potential stars.

Even though he was sent to the minors, I thought Wilkerson might be one of the few threats to Balentien's playing time had the young guy struggled and Wilkerson somehow get hot in Tacoma.

Worry no more 'bout that I guess.

Now it would be super-sub Willie Bloomquist, not so spring chicken with a whack back Jose Vidro or...hahaha... Miguel Cairo taking any sort of AB's from the two youngsters.

Sweeet...barring the infamous player-to-be-named-later we've got some AB's ahead of us folks. Too bad this lineup couldn't produce a run in a charity softball event, but hey at least there's gonna be some hacks taken. Game on.

BABIP, BABIP, BABIP... That's All Folks!

I ventured down the BABIP highway a few months ago and came to this conclusion.

While BABIP isn't my favorite nor the most telling of sabermatric stats, it is upon request that I share my insight on this year's BABIP's to date.

BABIP can be defined as Batting Average on Balls In Play. This is a measure of the number of batted balls that safely fall in for a hit (not including home runs). A typical BABIP is about .290 for a pitcher. Today we'll examine certain pitchers who strayed from the mean in 2007.

While the mean is typically .290, 65% of starting pitchers in 2007 has a BABIP between .270 and .310. Those guys aren't far off the average. However, 35% of pitchers were.

So, on to 2008 where we are nearly six weeks into the season.

The ten lowest BABIP through May 7th (BIPA if you are using ESPN)

10. Greg Smith - .211
9. Scott Olsen - .198
8. Ben Sheets - .196
7. Ryan Dempster - .187
6. Shaun Marcum - .183
5. Cliff Lee - .182
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka - .176
3. Armando Galarraga - .174
2. Erik Bedard - .169
1. Gavin Floyd - .160 (Lowest BABIP in the majors)

In analyzing these 10 pitchers, I can't come to grips with simply using BABIP as a predictor of their success or achievements thus far. I have to incorporate some DIPS or ERC (you can expect an ERC article early next week).

Of those 10, Lee, Galarraga and Sheets seem the likeliest to keep their numbers down as their BABIP increases because their other sabermetric stats check out some.

On the other hand, Olsen, Matsuzaka, Bedard and Floyd have rather high ERC and/or DIPS ratios as of now, leading me to believe that they are getting quite lucky so far in 2008.

Simply put, if you believe in and trust sabermetrics like I do, I'd be very quick to trade Olsen, Bedard, Daisuke and Floyd. Again, don't get me wrong. Bedard and Daisuke are 200 K guys and all, but they are clearly set up for a regression in the near future.

Floyd could have issues similar to Chris Young, where he sports a low BABIP throughout the entire year.

Maybe some of the pitchers with high BABIP's below may give you some ideas as to whom to target in exchange.

The ten highest BABIP through May 7th

1. Andrew Miller - .397
2. Bronson Arroyo - .382
3. Chris Sampson - .377
4. Phil Hughes - .376
5. Dustin Mosely - .369
6. Manny Parra - .364
7. CC Sabathia - .363
8. Chad Billingsley - .345
9. Ublando Jimenez - .345
10. Ian Snell - .341

Of this crew, its likely that you weren't counting much on the Arroyo, Sampson, Mosely.

Its possible you drafted and hoped that guys like Miller, Parra, Jimenez would pan out.

Its likely that you are frustrated with Sabathia, Snell, Hughes and Billingsley.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

If you are on the same page as me thus far, then rejoice in the following: Billingsley, Sabathia and Snell are the 3 from this list most likely to benefit from a lower BABIP.

While every pitcher benefits from a lower BABIP, most pitchers with high BABIP are pitching terribly. It is the few outliers that we seek in efforts of explaining why they've been pitching poorly.

Billingsley, Sabathia and Snell all fall into that category. CC and Snell sport DIPS in the mid 4.00's and Billingsley is at 3.50. That shows me that they've been unlucky and should some of those hits stop falling in, they should right the ship.

The rest of that gang either has DIPS/ERC above 5.00 or is nobody you want to waste your time on in 2008.

Stargazing In The Great Northwest

It's been a little over a week since Seattle called up possible stars, Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentin, let's see what they've been able to do with their oppurtunity in this small amount of time.

Clement is struggling. He is 3 for 23, 11 K, 3 BB, 0 RBI and no extra-base hits.

Perhaps he is feeling a little more pressure having to bat mostly fifth, sixth and sometimes seventh in a terribly sputtering lineup. He's 0 for 9 at home too.

Maybe if he got a little more time BEHIND the plate, he could take his mind off of being AT the plate. Two appearances at catcher opposed to six at DH. Thats pretty unlikely though with his average catching skills and Kenji sittin back there.

Hopefully Coach McLaren wants to see him produce just as bad we do and doesn't shy away from using this home-run hitting backstop from Southern Cal. Most of us could use a little more pop at the catcher position.

Balentien is doing a little better than Clement and has a better shot at holdin down a fielding postion too.

He is 7 for 28, 2 HR, 1 double, 6 RBI and three multi-hit games.

He has struck out eight times and walked none though in what has been his weakness so far in his young career.

Balentien has great power, with a record in the minors to prove it, so I could see him getting a pretty long leash to play right field and swing away for a while longer, especially with Wilkerson getting sent down to the minors.

Hopefully the stars can align over the Northwest soon, so the Mariners can get rollin and we can get a better look at our much desired fantasy stars.

Our Boys -- To Steer Clear Of

Back in March we recommended some players to target and others to avoid. A few weeks ago I updated how our recommendations were doing and today I'm going to update how our "guys to avoid" are doing.

John Lackey - Been on the DL all year.

Dontrelle Willis - Five total innings, been on the DL all year.

Barry Zito - 0-6, 7.20 ERA, 1.95 WHIP. He needed help from teammates in carrying his large contract from the dugout to the pen.

Aaron Harang - 1-5, 3.09 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, on pace for over 200K's.

Dan Haren - 4-1, 3.12 ERA, 0.99 WHIP.

Roy Oswalt - 3-3, 5.57 ERA, 1.55 WHIP.

Scott Kazmir - 4 innings pitched, 6.75 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, been on DL most of the year.

Carlos Zambrano - 5-1, 1.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, on pace for 186 K's and 270 innings.

Gil Meche - 2-4, 5.98 ERA, 1.52 WHIP.

Vernon Wells - .281 - 19 runs - 4 HR - 22 RBI - 1 SB

Aaron Rowand - .336 - 12 - 3 - 15 - 0

Melky Cabrera - .280 - 16 - 6 - 17 - 3

Jeremy Hermida - .299 - 12 - 2 - 13 - 0

Matt Kemp - .330 - 19 - 3 - 24 - 9

Fausto Carmona - 3-1, 2.95 ERA, 1.79 WHIP

Jeremy Guthrie - 1-3, 4.06 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Scott Olsen - 4-1, 2.22 ERA, 1.05 WHIP

Bronson Arroyo - 1-4, 8.63 ERA, 1.95 WHIP

BJ Upton - .293 - 18 - 3 - 23 - 5

Noah Lowry - DL, has yet to pitch in 2008.

Clay Buchholz - 2-2, 3.71 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, K per inning.

El Duque - DL, has yet to pitch in 2008.

Rick Ankiel - .277 - 21 - 6 - 18 - 0

Troy Glaus - .228 - 9 -1 - 21 - 0

Scott Rolen - .257 - 3 -1 - 6 -1 - Spent much time on the DL so far.


Analysis


As you know, this list was not a list of people who would not be useful in 2008. This was a list of people who were recommended to avoid because it was thought that through our research they would have worse years than they had in 2007.


Some of these players I will defend my stance on while others I will pull a 180 on.


I seem to be pretty on target and will stay the course with my opinion on the following players from here on out...


Lackey, Zito, Willis, Oswalt, Kazmir, Meche, Wells, Rowand, Cabrera, Hermida, Carmona, Guthrie, Arroyo, Upton, Lowry, El Duque, Ankiel, Glaus, Rolen.

Carmona leads the league in walks and has been one of the luckiest pitchers as his WHIP is close to 2.00. He should finish with an ERA over 4.00 easily.

While Rowand, Wells, Cabrera, Hermida, and Upton are not playing poorly, they certainly aren't living up to the expectations of their owners in relation to where they were likely drafted.


Aaron Rowand's AVG of .336 is all but guaranteed to drop as his contact rate has been in the high 60's to low 70's all year long.


Upton is satisfying owners but his new lineup spot is giving him more RBI and less SB. He's also no longer eligible at 2b in most leagues, limiting his value in that sense. He will not have been worth the second round pick some year's end.


Ironically, Hermida's AVG is still close to .300, much like it was in 2007. Our research suggested a significant drop in his AVG due to a very low contact rate. He again has a 77% CR. There are always a few exceptions to the contact rate rule, but very few. The only names who annually sport low CR yet have high batting AVG are Holliday, Guerrero, Miguel Cabrera and Manny Ramirez. They are all similar in that they swing at everything but when they make contact the ball is hit a lot harder and most go for line drives.


Hermida doesn't seem to fit that prototype, so I still expect a lower AVG to come.

Melky Cabrera seems to be doing alright, but I'm still not sold.


I'm surprised to see the following...

Scott Olsen pitching so well. Last year we know he was awful, but nothing pointed to such a rebound. I never discounted his talent, but didn't see this coming. I'm still not sold and wouldn't go trading for him, but I wouldn't be surprised if he continues this success since he's young and has shown talent in the past.


I stand my ground regarding...


Dan Haren, Aaron Harang, and Carlos Zambrano. I admit right now that of the 25 players not to target, Haren, Lackey and Harang were my three ballsiest picks and regardless of how they do from here on in, I will stand by that statement. They were all #1 SP studs last year.


Harang could strikeout 200+ again and Haren could have an ERA around 3.50. However, their wear and tear as per the 3500 Club still make me weary. I also realize that they could hit the wall in 2009 as well. So, don't be surprised if these two have solid years as it was quite risky for me to go against their success. If they do go down you can thank me like you did for John Lackey, who was equally as risky a call to go against in March.


Carlos Zambrano is an injury waiting to happen. Just wait.


I pull a 180 on...


I will pull a 180 on ONE player out of the 25 to avoid. That player is Matt Kemp.


He's on pace for 45 SB, which is over 30 more than his AVG in the minors. So, admittedly that should be a surprise to all.


He moved up a lot in the lineup which is a big difference from sharing time (Pierre, Jones, Kemp, Ethier) as it appeared would be likely in March. With additional AB and extended PT, he's on pace for 93 runs and 117 RBI.


His 73% CR from last year made me think his .340 AVG would drove below .290. Again, he has a .330 AVG and a 73% CR.


While Hermida doesn't fit the bill of a Holliday, Guerrero, Cabrera or Manny... Kemp does.


Kemp could be the new version of that foursome as a guy who makes little contact, but hits the ball hard and hits a lot of line drives in the process.


If Kemp continues this pace, he will be a second round pick in 2008 or even a trendy late first rounder.


I wouldn't go mortgaging the farm for him nor would I trade more proven talent for him, but he's looking like a great bet from here on in.


How are your teams doing with/without this group of players?


What are your thoughts on these 25 when posted in March? Now?

Waiver Wednesday

Welcome to the first installment of Wavering on the Wire where I’ll give you some insight on the players I see sitting out on the waiver wire from week to week. These are players sometime overlooked, coming off the DL, slumping, filling in, etc who could potentially help your team in the short and long term.

Often times, the right pick up at the right time off the wire can be the key to a team’s success. Just ask Fausto Carmona, Heath Bell, Jeremy Accardo, Reggie Willits, Manny Corpas, and Chad Billingsley owners from last year.

April Fools (Guys who started off slow, but that’s what they always do. So if someone lost their patience and dropped them early you could find a diamond in the rough)

Adam LaRoche -- In your typical 12 team 5 x 5 roto league LaRoche was most likely drafted in all leagues. However, after a horrendous start to the season he could be seen hanging out on the wire in a lot of leagues. Considering he batted .163 for the month it was somewhat understandable. However, what the owners who did drop him failed to realize is his career average in April .182, but in for every month combined he’s a .290 hitter. In fact only once in his career has LaRoche ever batted over .200 in April and that was at .206. In comparison for every other month of the season he's only batted below .250 twice. So if he’s lurking around the wire make sure you pick him up because he’s already off to a great start in May at .375, 2 HR, & 5 RBI’s. Recommended in All Formats.

Keeping it Off the DL (Players who got hurt early and were dropped, but are starting to get healthy now)

Elijah Dukes – Dukes is coming off a hamstring injury he suffered in the 1^st game of the season, and still hasn’t been activated yet. However, he was sent down on a rehab assignment last week with the Nationals AAA affiliate in Columbus. So far in 5 games he’s only batting .235 with 3 RBI’s, but the most encouraging news is he also has a stolen base and been caught once. Showing that his hamstring is feeling fine. Dukes is a very talented player and if he can keep the off field issues in check he could be a nice addition to your team. Dukes will be fighting for some playing time with Austin Kearns & Willy Mo Pena, but both are off to slow starts and shouldn’t threaten him that much. Recommendation – Stash him on you bench or in a DL spot if you have the room.

The Replacements (Filling in because of an injury to a superstar, but can produce if given a shot)

Clint Barmes – With the possibility of Troy Tulowitzki being out for two month with a torn quad muscle, Barmes becomes the Rockies everyday SS. Barmes got off to a torrid pace in his rookie year of 2005, but unfortunately he broke his left collarbone that summer. The way he injured himself was certainly the weirdest way I’ve ever heard of someone breaking their collarbone. He fell while carrying a large slab of meat given to him as a gift by Todd Helton up the stairs in his apartment building. Barmes could put up some decent numbers’s in Rockies mashing lineup, as long as he refraines from lugging any meat up the stairs over the next few months. So far this year Barmes is batting .302 with 9 runs, 2 HR, & 11 RBI’s. Recommendation - Pick up in NL Only Leagues & Shallow Mixed Leagues

The Cheap Stats (Players you can plug in who might help you in some of the harder categories to get production, like steals & saves)

Scott Podsednik – His days as of 50-60 SB are probably gone, but if your looking for a few cheap steals Podsednik might be your guy. He doesn’t have an every day gig, but when he’s been in he’s been productive, hitting a nice .308 with 6 SB. He’s a good guy to throw in a on a Monday or Thursday when your lineup is thin and maybe he’ll swip you a bag or two. Recommendation - Pick in NL only & Shallow Mixed Leagues.

Stuck in the Middle with You (Middle relievers with value)

Santiago Casilla/Joey Devine – Two A’s relievers who are both putting up impressive numbers. Casilla hasn’t given up an earned run yet all year and has 21 K’s in 17.1 innings to boot. While Devine is sporting a 0.75 ERA with 13 K’s in 12 innings. Both guys will help you out in with K’s, Whip, & ERA and could factor in for some saves if/when the A’s fall out of it, and deal Huston Street at the deadline. Recommendation – Pick up in AL Only & Shallow Mixed Leagues.

Jesse Carlson/Scott Downs – While Jeremy Accardo is the Jays reliever that most of teams have after BJ Ryan, these two relievers are actually having much better years. Both have very good K per 9 rates and do factor in getting some scavenger saves from BJ Ryan. “The Ryan Rules,” were just lifted so he can pitch back to back days, but he’s still a pitcher who is less than a year removed from Tommy John surgery. So owners be warry things could go wrong and it’s not the worst thing to have some insurance. Recommendation – Pick up in AL Olny & Shallow Mixed Leagues.

Hong-Chih Kou – Another Japanese import having early success in America. Kou has been impressive so far. He has 33 K’s in just 24.1 innings icluding an amazing 8 strikeouts in 3.2 innings of relief last night against the Mets. He also picked up a win in that game. Besides one bad blowout against the Reds, Kou has been nearly unhittable. Recommendation - Pick up in NL Only & Shallow Mixed Leagues

Hit the Spot (Spot Starters for the next few days who might pick you up a win)

Luke Hochevar v. Baltimore (5/8/08) – After a rough first start giving up 6 earned runs in 4.2 innings, Hochevar has quietly won his last two games. So it looks like Royals top pitching prospects are turning it around. He starts against a weaker Baltimore lineup on Thursday. I predict another solid outing.

Dana Eveland v. Texas (5/11/08)- Eveland is coming of a nice start against Balitimore in which he got a no decision. Texas is a great hitters park, but Eveland’s only given up 1 HR in 41.1 innings. So if you can get him, start him.

Gavin Floyd v. Seattle (5/11/08) – Coming off an insane 1 hitter, if by chance Floyd is still out their, make sure you pick him up for his start against the Mariners. Seattle’s offense is tanking and he should have another solid start.

Scott Olsen v. Washington (5/11/08) – He is still walking too many guys, but Washington’s offense isn’t exactly Murderer’s Row. He’s also coming off a stellar performace against the Brewers leathal lineup in which he went 8.2 innings giving up no earned runs while striking out 8. So put him in if your looking for another strong performance.

Jamie Moyer v. San Fransisco (5/10/08) – I’d probably start my mother if she was pitching against the Giants. The King of Slop should pitch well enough for a win.

Move on up (Situations to watch with minor leaguers who could make a move up soon)

The reds 4^th & 5^th starter spots. Bronson Arroyo & Matt Belisle have been down right terrible this year. It’s only so long that the Reds can keep Homer Bailey waiting in the minors. If he’s not being stashed by someone else, make room for Mr. Bailey on your sqaud. He’ll be up sooner than later

The Kershaw debut. While obviously nothing is imminent,with Esteban Loaiza pitching like the washed up pitcher he is, the Clayton Kershaw count down could be starting very soon. If he’s available and you have the room just like in the Bailey senario, pick him up and look forward to the benefits in the near future.

-Chris Lynch

Volquez

This quote from CBS Sports...

Forget Johnny Cueto, Volquez is looking like the better Reds pitcher so far in 2008. He hasn't allowed more than one run or five hits in any of his seven outings and has only struck out less than seven once. Those kind of Fantasy numbers will make any owner salivate, no matter what kind of league he's in.

Point well taken at GOTOS.

This Week's Roundtable

If you could only play in one fantasy baseball league a year, what type of league would you want to participate in? Draft vs. Auction, Keeper vs. Redraft vs. Dynasty, Roto vs. H2H vs. Points vs. Other, Mixed vs. AL vs. NL, "Expert" vs. Friends, How many teams.....


Check out all the responses at Fantasy Baseball Geeks.

Let's Play Ten!

It's a situation we've all faced as fantasy baseball owners...going against an opponent in a weekly league that seems to have every one of his pitchers getting two starts. It's cyclical, of course, and there will be weeks where you are the one reaping the benefits from 2 start pitchers. But, should a league have the potential to be determined by something that is so random? Is there a solution?

We've run the problem through our Pseudo computer and have come up with a simple, yet effective answer. A ten day scoring period. Forgetting the logistics of the idea (CBS, Yahoo, ESPN and other online hosts don't have the ability to facilitate this), a ten day fantasy period makes sense for a lot of reasons. None more than the fact that every pitcher should get exactly two starts in any given ten day window. Possibly less, but rarely will a pitcher ever get more. Most teams do whatever they can to make sure that their best pitchers throw every 5 days, regardless of rainouts or off days.

If you break down a fantasy roster and any scoring structure, it's weighted so that equal value is given to hitters and pitchers. This is true for either categories or points leagues. With that being said, would it be fair for Alex Rodriguez to get 13 games in one scoring period? The notion that a pitcher could essentially double his value for no other reason than pure luck completely skews the balance of any scoring structure.

So join us in the revolution and challenge the status quo. Together, we can make a difference.

Mauer Breaks Up No Hitter... Or Does Swisher?

No knock on Mauer's nice line drive that had 50/50 chance at being a double regardless...

BUT.... when NICK SWISHER dives and misses by a foot...

It makes me wonder if Ozzie Guillen regrets (or now gets the point that) putting Nick Swisher as the starting CF, when he could barely play 1B isn't the smartest move.

I can name about 26 starting CF in the game today who could have had a better chance of catching that ball than Nick Swisher.

8 and 1/3 innings of no hit ball is still impressive for Gavin Floyd, who continues to impress.

Floyd Looking For Dark Side Of The Moon?

Sox pitcher Gavin Floyd, for the second time this year, has gone into the 8th inning with a no-hitter in tact.

He's given up an unearned run on a walk and a sac fly.

Tune in now to ESPN for the bonus coverage.

I'll Have What He's Having

On nights when your team's ERA is over 9.00 and your offensive output is something like 3- 37 with 2 runs and an RBI, visit Nyjer Morgan's page on CBSSports.com.

Gregg Uses Best Pitch

Kevin Gregg only needed one pitch to record the save tonight for the Marlins.

After coming in with two outs in the 9th in relief of Scott Olsen, who had loaded the bases, Gregg promptly got Bill Hall to swing at the first pitch and fly out.

Nice job Kevin... No need to shower tonight.

Chips and DIPS

DIPS, or Defense Independent Pitching Statistics is one of the most accurate statistics that can be used to determine how well a pitcher has pitched, independent from his defense behind him. After all, most of a pitcher's ERA is determined by his walk rate, strikeout rate, and ability to prevent homeruns. So, what kind of plays involve a defense in the first place? 1. Any ground ball in play. 2. Any fly ball that is not a homerun. So then, what does DIPS look at? The four statistics that are controlled entirely by a pitcher, even if there was not one fielder behind him. And they are: 1. homeruns 2. strikeouts 3. walks 4. hit batters. Those plays are under only the pitcher's control in the sense that fielders have no effect on their outcome.

Taking a closer look into DIPS, we can analyze a pitcher's ability level. The stats we are looking at won't be effected even if one pitcher's shortstop is Ozzie Smith and another's is David Ortiz. Defense-dependent statistics, such as the rate of hits allowed on balls put into play (other than home runs), are almost entirely the result of luck and the skills of the defensive players on the field. Today we take away those infielders and look at which pitchers have the best ability.

So, who are the leading DIPS pitchers thus far?

Who is truly pitching well and should see their ERA and WHIP go down?

Whose performance is being masked by inflated stats and is likely to see their ERA and WHIP rise?

Let's find out...

2008 DIPS Leaders

1. Cliff Lee - DIPS = 1.97 --- ERA = 0.96

2. John Smoltz - DIPS = 2.33 --- ERA = 2.00

3. Javier Vazquez - DIPS = 2.67 --- ERA = 3.76

4. Tim Lincecum - DIPS = 2.70 --- ERA = 1.49

5. Tim Hudson - DIPS = 2.78 --- ERA = 2.95

6. Edinson Volquez - DIPS - 2.87 --- ERA = 1.23

7. Jair Jurrjens - DIPS = 2.89 --- ERA = 3.05

8. Randy Wolf - DIPS = 2.97 --- ERA = 3.57

9. Chien-Ming Wang - DIPS = 3.12 --- ERA = 3.00

10. John Danks - DIPS = 3.26 --- ERA = 3.12

As you can see from this list, some pitchers' ERA matches well with their DIPS.

Other pitchers have quite a differential.

Javier Vazquez seems to be the only one who is getting screwed here. He usually pitches very effectively and sabermetrically is on the short end of the stick. In sum, he's a great pitcher and owners should be happy to have him as a #2 or #3 with hopes of his stats getting better as the year progresses.

Before we get carried away here, let me say this. The above pitchers are in the top 10 in DIPS. So, they are ALL pitching extremely well.

That being said, when we look at the likes of Lee, Lincecum and Volquez, their DIPS ERA's suggest they are due for their ERA and WHIP to rise.

Did we really think that their ERA's would all remain under 2.00? No. Being that they are still in the top 10 in DIPS, they are all pitching effectively and even if their ERA's rose to match their DIPS ERA's they would still be under 3.00, which we'd all be equally as happy with.

The top 10 aside, are there any pitchers who have vast differentials between their DIPS ERA and ERA?

Getting lucky and their ERA and WHIP should rise (sell)

Erik Bedard - Now, when I mean sell I don't infer that these guys will have little to no value from here on in. I do suggest matching up someone from the sell list and trading them for someone of equal value from the buy list. Bedard's ERA is 1.74 but his DIPS is 4.99, the biggest differential in the majors.

Kason Gabbard - The Texas youngster was shipped over from Boston for Gagne. His 2.18 ERA looks nice on the outside but his DIPS ERA stands at 4.70.


Fausto Carmona - A 2.60 ERA but a DIPS and ERC over 5.00 means trouble. Get rid of him now.

Brian Burres - The O's surprise has been added in many leagues. If he's still on the waiver wire in yours, leave him there. His DIPS is 4.27 while his ERA is 2.87.

Jeremy Bonderman - Bonderman. Jeremy Bonderman, is the name. His 3.86 ERA has people thinking he's on the comeback trail. Wrong. His DIPS is well over 5.00.

Jon Lester - Another guy catching people's eye is the Sox hurler. His DIPS is a run and a half higher than his ERA. I'd ditch him.

Odalis Perez - He's likely to be serviceable this year... but not this serviceable. His 3.18 ERA is quality but with an ERC and DIPS into the mid 4.00's, don't expect this trend to continue.



Unlucky so far and their ERA and WHIP should go down (buy)

Nate Robertson - He's nothing more than a middle of the pack spot starter. However, nobody wants to spot start him these days with a 6.82 ERA. His DIPS ERA is clsoer to the mid 4.00's, which is what he expect from him each year.

CC Sabathia - I admit I was wrong about him being "done." I still doubt he repeats his 2007 season and if it weren't for the contract year I'd have some other thoughts. I digress. His 7.51 ERA is ugly but his 4.51 DIPS gives us hope.

Chad Billingsley - 5.20 ERA, 3.40 DIPS. He leads the majors in k/9 so sabermetrically he's been a stud. He's a good buy low. Remember though, I see his ERA being in the 3.90 - 4.20 range this year, so don't get carried away.

Johnny Cueto - Now could be a good time, interestingly enough, to buy low. His balloon has been slightly deflated with some rough starts. While he will see bumps in the road and is likely best suited to be someone's #3 SP this year at best, his 5.14 ERA is a lot higher than both his ERC and DIPS.

Ted Lilly - Another guy in the Javier Vazquez mold, who always seems to be getting the short end of the stick. His ERA is reaching 6.00 but his DIPS is a more intriguing 4.76.

Randy Wolf - His 3.57 ERA is nice but it should be nicER. Both his ERC and DIPS are in the mid 2.00's. He's a great guy to nab if an owner doesn't think he'll maintain.

Young Guns Shoot It Out In Oaktown

In a great match-up of two young lefty's, Oakland's Dana Eveland faced off against Baltimore's Garrett Olson in what turned out to be quite the pitchers duel.

After getting some early season hype from yours truly and others from the GOTOS gang, Dana Eveland had slowed a bit as of late and even complained of a "knuckle-popping" sensation in his throwing elbow during his last start.

Yikes!

No signs of pain tonight though as Eveland was downright good. Lasting a career high seven innings, Eveland gave up only three hits and ZERO runs while walking four and striking out four.

Possibly pitching even better than Eveland though, was young Garrett Olson.

After being told by the organization that he had to master his command in the minors to begin the season, he came out tonight and did just that, walking only one batter in six and a third innings while striking out SEVEN!

Olson gave up only fours hits and a run as he looked very impressive for the second straight game, though this time cutting his walks down from five to one in the two starts.

Possibly being extra-pumped to be pitching a few hours north of his hometown Fresno, he definetely didn't disappoint and there is good reason to believe that he won't disappoint your fantasy team either.

Eveland is probably gone already, but Olson may not be.

After tonight, I'm saying that he should be. He was impressive, and after posting a 3/1 k/bb ratio last year in triple-A Norfolk while stiking out nearly a batter an inning (120 k in 128 ip), I don't see that taking a chance with a roster spot on him is going out on a limb at this point. Grab him!

Scherzer Hype-O-Meter Hurts

In the highly anticipated MLB starting debut of Max Scherzer, the hype far outweighed the performance.

Bummer.

Max didn't pitch overly horrible, he just pitched too much in too little time in his first ever big league start.

Lasting only four innings, Scherzer threw 92 pitches, giving up seven hits, two walks and two earned runs while striking out five.

Giving up a leadoff double to the "Flyin Hawaiian", he beaned the next batter on the very next pitch showing that the pressure was probably more than we could imagine. A fielders choice and a sacrifice fly later and he gave up the first run of his major league career.

He gave up two hits in a scoreless second, while striking out two and inducing a comebacker to the mound for the third out.

Not bad.

In the third, he got a fly out, surrendered a double to Utley and a walk to Howard.

Understandable.

He followed that with a strikeout of Burrell, then gave up a single to Jenkins for a run, uncorked a wild pitch and got no help from his shortstop, as Stephen Drew commited an error that scored a run and extended the inning. Two hits later, one being a double by the pitcher Moyer and this certainly looked like a major league starting debut by a young pitcher.

Oh well, he did get out of that inning and went one more inning with a walk, two groundouts and a K.

Like I said, the hype-o-meter was real high, he faced a very good offensive team and probably had the butterflies fluttering rapidly tonight.

There is a reason the hype has been so high though, this kid could and should be dynamite pitching for the hottest team in baseball. I'd rather have him than not have him, and I will be eagerly monitoring every pitch he throws for the rest of the season. Go Mad Max!!!

Give Up On McGowan?

Dustin McGowan, highly recommended on draft day, lowered his ERA to 2.95 tonight.

He tossed 7.1 innings of 4 -hit ball. He walked nobody and struck out 6.

I hope nobody jumped ship because of a rough start.

Expect him to be a solid #3 this year.

The Closer Report: Go with Gagne

By Paul Shapiro

Eric Gagne is leading the league in one category so far this season -- blown saves. That’s the one category that a closer never wants to see his name at the top of the list. But Gagne doesn’t seem to have anything to worry about. Although the right-hander has five blown saves in 14 opportunities, he is entrenched as the Brewers closer.

Over the past week, Gagne went 2-for-3 in save opportunities and his ERA went down from 6.75 to 6.14. His WHIP went up from 1.50 to 1.70, so those of you who own him should understand what you are in for in the long run.

Gagne just isn’t the same guy that was once lights out in LA with the Dodgers. He will get you strikeouts -- 17 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings. He will also keep on the edge of your seat, allowing 26 baserunners (15 hits and 10 walks) in less than 15 innings of work.

But owners should rest assured that the Canadian, who holds the record for most saves in a single season (55), is going to get chance after chance to prove that he is the right guy to close out games for the Brew Crew.

According to Adam McCalvy, Brewers Beat Reporter for MLB.com, the ninth inning belongs to Gagne. “The Brewers have been happy with Gagne so far, and you can argue that two of his four blown saves are dubious,” he said. “Corey Patterson hit a game-tying home run on April 8 in Milwaukee that landed in a party area in right field -- three years ago it would have been a warning-track out -- and then on April 22, Rickie Weeks botched an Albert Pujols double-play ball that should have ended the game. Yes, he shouldn't have allowed the Patterson homer and yes, he should have been able to recover from the Pujols thing, but those very easily could have gone the other way.”

Gagne also doesn’t have anyone breathing down his throat, vying to take his job. If Gagne imploded (which is entirely possible) or went down with injury (knock on wood), the relievers who could take his job are … “Probably [David] Riske is the backup, or Salomon Torres. Guillermo Mota is another guy with some experience closing,” McCalvy said. That seems to be the pecking order with Derrick Turnbow being optioned to Triple-A this week.

So the long and the short of it is stick with the $10 million dollar man. “Gagne is definitely the guy,” McCalvy said. “You don't pay someone $10 million and then yank him after a month.”

Here are some unbelievable stats on Gagne. Amazingly, the right-hander has only blown 15 saves in his entire career -- 186-for-201. That’s almost 93 percent. And a little known fact -- the year Gagne had 55 saves, he went 55-for-55 in save opportunities. That’s completely insane. I have nothing more to say about this guy. Goodnight Canada!

Smoltz = Saves (Again): When will John Smoltz return from the disabled list? The earliest he is eligible to return is mid-May, and when that day comes he will be in the Braves’ bullpen. Most would assume it would be as the team’s closer, and I have to agree. In the meantime stick with Manny Acosta, until otherwise noted. He is 2-for-2 in save opportunities with a 3.68 ERA and a .196 batting average against. His 10 hits allowed and 11 base on balls in 14 2/3 innings pitched scares me. The guy with the “closer stuff” is Blain Boyer. He has pitched 18 2/3 innings with 20 strikeouts, four walks and a 0.91 WHIP. If Boyer is available, you might get a few “free” saves over the next month before Smoltz returns.

Root for Rauch: With Chad Cordero out 4-6 weeks with a torn shoulder muscle, the Nationals’ closer is now and will be Jon Rauch for the remainder of the season. Rauch was dominant as the setup man last season and I don’t see him leaving the ninth inning anytime soon. He is 7-for-9 in save opportunities thus far this season and could rack up 30 saves with Cordero on the shelf. Like I said last week, “I like Rauch.” I liked him when Cordero was available to close, so how do you think I feel now?

Enough Saves To Go Around...For Now: B.J. Ryan may not have allowed an earned run yet this season, and he may be for 4-for-4 in save opportunities, but the Blue Jays’ closer still can’t pitch on consecutive days. Manager John Gibbons said it will be another two-to-three weeks before the Jays will use Ryan in that capacity. That means that, depending on the situation, anyone in the back end of Toronto’s bullpen could pick up a save. This past week it was Scott Downs, the week before that it was Jesse Carlson, and the week before that it was Jeremy Accardo. Who’s next in line? Let’s go with Jason Frasor. If Ryan feels as good as he has looked on the mound, it wouldn't surprise me if the left-hander starts pitching on back-to-back days sooner than Gibbons originally said.

Knock on Wood: Kerry Wood started May off on the wrong foot. He came into the game on May 1 against the Brewers with a 3-1 lead in ninth. Wood promptly gave up three runs on three hits and a walk to take the loss. That’s the bad news. Here’s the worse news for Wood owners. In the eighth inning of that game, Carlos Marmol recorded his eighth hold of the season, lowering his ERA to 1.29. Marmol has also struck out 28 batters in 21 innings. If Marmol is available in your league, you might want to click “Add Player.” I don’t see how those numbers can possibly hurt. My prediction: Marmol is the closer by midseason, if not sooner.

Bet on Betancourt: Rafael Betancourt blew his first save since becoming the Tribe’s closer. He has allowed five earned runs in his last three appearances (1 2/3 innings of work), but I wouldn’t worry about Betancourt just yet. Those numbers are a bit deceiving. Betancourt has given up two home runs in those games and was hurt by a Casey Blake error at third base when he blew his first save. That’s technically just two bad pitches and Indians manager Eric Wedge remains confident in his closer, particularly because Betancourt has only had three save chances in nearly three weeks. Those of you with an extra roster spot might want to start keeping a closer eye on Masa Kobayashi, the 33-year-old import from Japan, who is 2-0 on the season with a 1.72 ERA. The right-hander has been impressive and Wedge has taken notice. You should too.

Still Perfect: Eleven closers, I repeat, 11 closers have not yet blown a save this season. That list includes: Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera, Joakim Soria, Brad Lidge, Troy Percival, Matt Capps, Todd Jones, B.J. Ryan, Francisco Cordero and, last but not least, Manny Acosta. Rivera, Soria, Lidge, Percival and Ryan have yet to allow an earned run. I’d say three of these 11 closers will blow saves this week (Acosta, Lidge and Jones). And Soria will be the last closer remaining without a blown save heading into June. Get back to me next week and we’ll see where we these predictions stand.

Greg Smith Pours It On

In a possible bid to keep his rotation spot if/when Rich Harden returns, Greg Smith pitched another strong game Sunday against the Rangers.

Not knowing who is going to lose their spot in the rotation with the possible return of oft-injured ace Harden, Smith made a strong case for it NOT to be him. He did not record the win but struck out 10 batters while walking just two and giving up only three hits in six innings of work.

I'm liking this guy more and more lately, and with the way he's been pitching of late he should really be considered for your fantasy team, if he hasn't been swooped up already.

His stat line so far this season reads: 39 ip, 2 w, 31 k, 13 bb, 27 ha and just 11 earned runs.

Those 13 walks include 5 that he gave up early in his big league debut against the Jays that can possibly be written off due to jitters.

Billy Beane has a track record of unearthing gems and the A's are way more competitive than people gave them credit for coming into the season. Just another reason to really give Smith serious consideration for your staff.

The Minority Report

The players I’ve chosen to write on this week are a mixture of requests, blasts from the past, top prospects, and a recent call up or two. It’s good to monitor the minor leagues for all types of players, not just the top end guys. An Armando Galarraga comes out of nowhere every year. If you’re paying attention to trends in their stats you can make an educated decision on their ability to produce in the big show.

Recent Call Ups

Darrell Rasner – SP – NYY

Rasner has been called up to against SEA in place on the oft-injured Phil Hughes. Rasner has been up before making 10 starts across the past 10 years while keeping a respectable ERA. He is not a big strikeout guy but can be a solid back end of the rotation starter for a NY team that will start scoring runs soon. Rasner has seen improved numbers this year for AAA Scranton with a .170 BA against and 27 strikeouts to 6 walks in 31 innings. Righties are only hitting .082 against him to date and he has yet to allow a HR. In daily transaction leagues I’d take a chance on his start Sunday. In weekly mixed leagues watch his start closely as the Yankees desperately need help in their rotation for the long haul. Rasner can make a nice matchups play for a winning team.

Brandon Wood – SS/3B – ANA

Wood was called up on 4/28 to serve as a bench replacement for the injured Howie Kendrick. At the time of his call up Wood was leading the PCL in HR and continues to display light tower power. Here’s the problem – 29 Strikeouts, only 5 Walks, in 88 AB’s. Wood may have power, but until he shows signs of reducing that strikeout rate I suggest staying away from him. His stay in ANA will likely be short lived as Kendrick should be back in the next week or so. It’s not like Wood has forced their hand any either (4K/7AB).

Requested Write Ups

Chase Headley – 3B/OF – SD

Chase has been moved to the OF by SD as they seem to be happy with Kouzmanoff as their everyday 3B. Headley is likely the better long term option at 3B defensively but if he can learn the OF, SD will have a nice option in LF. Chase had a great Spring Training and it was a surprise he was sent to the minors to start the season. Headley didn’t see a lot of success in SD but had a dominant minor league season in 07. One red flag I see with Chase is that while hitting .330 in the Texas League he did strikeout 114 times in 433 AB’s, which rounds UP to a 74% contact rate. Chase is struggling right now in AAA and while many may think he’s not taking the demotion well, I think he’s simply coming back to earth after a stellar 2007 minor league season.

David Hernandez – SP – BAL

Hernandez burst onto the scene last year with 168 Strikeouts in 145 Innings. Unless you are a diehard minor league guy like me you likely missed his 18 strikeout performance in the playoffs for Frederick as well. He is a fast rising prospect in the O’s system that I see as one of their top 5 pitching prospects. He works with a 90-95 MPH fastball and has a slider with good tilt. His changeup is a work in progress, but if he can get that to be an average pitch he’s have 3 major league ready pitches. So far this year he is having a great debut in AA Bowie with a 2.30 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 31 innings. His BA against in .207 and RHB are hitting a measly .172 against. Dynasty league owners keep an eye out as he profiles to get a possible September call up when rosters expand to 40 players and should have a legit shot in Spring Training 2009 to win a rotation spot.

David Purcey – SP – TOR

6 foot 5 inches tall, 230 pounds, Left Handed Starting Pitcher – Sign me up! Purcey was Toronto’s 2004 First Round pick and looks like he’s coming into his own in 2008. Purcey was already given a spot start 2 weeks ago and did just fine allowing 1 R on only 2 hits in 4 and 1/3 innings. He did walk 7 batters that game but I will give him a pass for 1 start as he has not shown a problem with walks in his minor league career. So far in 2008 he has a 1.64 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 33 innings. His BA against is .168 versus both LHB and RHB. All of his numbers check out in my opinion and he is the next SP called up by the Rays when they need a starter. With the oft injured Burnett as part of that rotation Purcey’s day may come sooner than later.

Top Prospects

Andrew McCutchen – OF – PIT

Andrew is a top 20 prospect in the Majors on about every list I have seen this year. Personally I have him ranked at #13. McCutchen is tearing the cover off the ball right now in AAA. He is hitting .300 with 6 HR and 7 SB through May 1st. What really excites me about McCutchen’s start is his K/BB ratio. Last year he saw 83 strikeouts versus 44 walks. So far in 2008 he has 16 walks versus only 14 strikeouts in 111 at bats. That is an 87% contact rate which is up from 81% in 2007. Only 21 and already in AAA the sky is the limit for McCutchen. In keeper leagues I’d suggest monitoring him throughout the season as he could be a September call up with a chance at starting in 2009.

Jacob McGee – SP – TB

McGee is one of my favorite SP prospects in all of baseball. The only LHP I rate ahead of him is Clayton Kershaw. After Kershaw hits the majors he will leave McGee and Price on TB as the top two LHP prospects in baseball. The AL East better take notice, a rotation with 3 lefties the caliber of Kazmir, McGee, and Price would be downright scary. Last year McGee stuck out 175 batters in 139 innings sporting a .207 BA against. McGee is going through an adjustment period right now in AA but still sports a .216 BA against with 27 strikeouts in 23 innings. I predict McGee leads the minors in strikeouts this year and gets a shot in 2009 to make the rotation. Dynasty Leaguer’s, McGee should be fixed on your radar.

Blast from the Past

Nelson Cruz – OF – TEX

Before their recent 3 game winning streak the Rangers were 9-18 on the year. How much longer can they really afford to leave Cruz down in AAA? He was a top prospect and his star has faded but he is absolutely raking it right now. His line so far: .371 11 29 29 10. He has 25 walks versus 17 strikeouts and has an OPS of 1.315. David Murphy has started to slow down in LF for TEX and their DH is Frank Catalanotto who is hitting .240. If you are looking for OF help on the cheap, pick up Cruz as he should get a shot soon. How could he not?

For all readers out there – If you want me to profile a particular minor league player for next week’s Thursday article let me know in the comments section. I will do a write up on any request made by Tuesday afternoon.

- By Peter Billingsley

Pocket Rockets

When Peavy faces off against Santana we all know we need to drop what we are doing at that time and get the game on.

Tomorrow's matchup between the Phillies and the Giants features what could be the new Peavy vs Santana.

Cole Hamels is facing off against Tim Lincecum in a battle between two of the best young pitchers in the game today.

Matchups like this don't come often between west coast and east coast teams.

This could be the first and last time these two face off this year.

My favorite matchup of the year to this point was on April 24th when Lincecum took on Chris Young. A 1-0 finish with 19 combined strikeouts from the two pitchers.

Tune in at 1:35 eastern and enjoy the show.

Smoltz To Close

John Smoltz will return to being the Braves closer when he comes off the DL.

The value of Manny Acosta and Rafael Soriano becomes nil.

Too bad for Smoltz owners considering he was striking out 8 batters a game.

Brutal Blow To Gallardo

As everyone in the baseball and especially fantasy baseball world now knows, Yovanni Gallardo was diagnosed with a torn ACL in his right knee.

That hurts.

Many owners drafted an already hurt Yovanni this year planning on him being their #2 or #3 starting pitcher. I did at least.

And up until now, it had turned out to be a good and safe pick. Gallardo was healthy and pitching well even without recording a win. His peripherals were great and he pitched for a solid contender so the W's eventually would come his way too.

Now, a day after he supposedly avoided serious injury in a freak base path injury, the likely scenario is that he will undergo surgery to repair a COMPLETE tear of the ACL when his swelling subsides and likely miss the rest of the season.

Not much you can do about it but work with what you got and look for the best alternatives out there.

One thought I had, was to stash him in one of my leagues DL spots and hope for a late August or early September boost to my staff.

Could make sense, but that is showing a lot of patience and is probably more just trying to hold on to something that you thought you had. With the injury being to his right knee, the power leg for a right-hander, the likelihood for a return this season is slim to none.

I decided to act fast and grab the best waiver guy that I considered out there and dropped Yovanni for him. Maybe I should've let a couple days pass and wait for an official word of missing the season, but I felt there may be just a small window to get "my guy".

Do whatever you feel is right, but don't hold out much hope for a 2008 return for Gallardo.

I went with Scott Baker, who was recently let go in my league, presumably because of his groin strain, but if you all noticed in the Looking For Strikouts post by Brett, Baker is posting a near 8k/9 ip line right now and has only walked 5 batters compared to 27 k's.

Check your waivers and see if there is a decent shot in the dark guy out there that can help you hold out hope in the wake of your loss.

Good luck with that ya'll, and Yovanni, we'll miss you. Get well soon.

High And Dry

This from the Mike and Chris over at Pseudo Sports. They've got insightful stuff and will have a weekly column hosted on our site. Here is a taste of what they've got to offer...

A useful metric to use when analyzing pitcher performance is strand rate (or LOB%). Strand Rate is the percentage of runners that reach base and do not cross home plate. The average starting pitcher’s strand rate is usually around 70%-72%. There is some debate on whether or not strand rate is a matter of luck or if it is a repeatable skill, but it is clear that good pitchers tend to maintain higher than average strand rates.

Strand Rate = (Hits + BB + HBP - R)/((Hits+ BB + HBP -(1.4 * HR))

Today we are taking a look at some pitchers who have stranded an inordinately high number of runners this season. These pitchers are due for a regression, and as such their ERAs will likely rise as their strand rates fall.

The statistics next to each pitcher are their 2008 LOB%, their career LOB%, and their 2008 ERAs (as of April 30^th).

Zack Greinke 91.4% 71.58% 1.25
Tim Lincecum 88.7% 69.11% 1.73
Scott Olsen 84.9% 61.45% 2.06
Jake Westbrook 84.5% 68.28% 2.73
Carlos Zambrano 83.7% 74.79% 2.21

Zack Greinke and Tim Lincecum have pitched brilliantly since the start of the year but they have also been the recipient of some good luck. Their current strand rates are roughly 20 percentage points higher than their career averages and their HR/F rate are a paltry 4.9% and 3.7% respectively (league average is usually 11%). Those signs point to ERAs that are destined to rise above the 2.00 threshold over the next month or so.

Many owners are wondering if this is the season in which Scott Olsen puts it all together. It very well may be, but I doubt that he maintains a 2.06 ERA for too much longer. His current strand rate is over 23 percentage points higher than his career average. Even if his strand rate regresses only to the league average (roughly 71%) it should negatively affect his ERA. I would consider dealing Olsen in mixed leagues right now.

Jake Westbrook is an interesting case. His strand rate suggests that he has been lucky but his HR/F rate of 17.9% suggests that he’s been unlucky. Digging a bit further into the numbers, his FIP ERA is 4.36. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is a way to measure a pitcher’s performance independent of his defense. That is a differential of 1.63 in the wrong direction. I’d expect a severe ERA correction in the coming months. Sell while you can.

Carlos Zambrano has pitched above his ADP so far this season. His strand rate differential suggests he is due to take a hit in ERA, but the rest of his statistics generally support his current performance level, or at least support a level that is reasonably close to his current plane. His ERA will certainly creep towards 3.00 over the next few months but it looks like he will prove to be a draft day value.

You can find the above statistics at The Hardball Times. The career strand rates were calculated using data found at MLB.com.

Looking For Strikeouts?

K/9 is one of my favorite sabermetric statistics. It tells us the rate at which pitchers strike out batters.

While strikeouts is a counting category in most leagues, noting which pitchers are striking people out at the highest rate is most important.

A few weeks ago we looked at some of the top strikeout pitchers so far in 2008.

Which of them have kept it up? Which have slowed down? Are there any new guys creeping up into the top 20 in strikeout rate?

All this and more in this week's edition of Looking For Strikeouts.

Keeping it up...

Jonathan Sanchez - He was ranked 1st and has dropped down to 3rd. His 10.69/9 ratio is still top notch. He's even managed to leave his ERA at 3.48. He looks like he can maintain this pace folks.

Tim Lincecum - He was ranked second last time and now he's ranked 6th. At nearly 10K/9 he's still looking like #1 SP material. His ERA will go up a bit, but he's got talent. He should end the year with an ERA below 4.00 and 200 K if the Giants let him pitch in September.

Johan Santana - Nothing needs to be said. Ranked 12th.

Javier Vazquez - Ditto. Some guys always have good K rates and we expect that. Ranked 13th.

Randy Wolf - His 9 K/9 rate remains stellar. He's pitching really well and can be counted on for every home start. He can also be started on the road, but play the matchups carefully. He struck out 9 Phillies in Philadelphia last night over 6 innings so he's not scared of anybody right now. Health is always a concern.. but until then.. he can be started weekly.





Have slowed it down...

Todd Wellemeyer - He's slowed it down.. slightly. I wonder if he'll continue the slide enough to drop out of the top 20 next time. He dropped from 9.36 to 8.57, which still ranks him 11th. I expect it to decline further making him a good guy to get rid of, while promoting his 11th ranked K rate to someone.

Johnny Cueto - His rate has gone from 9.91/9 to 8.57/9. That is a decrease my friends. He's someone to sell high on because the hype surrounding him was absurd. The start he had was great but he's due to hit some bumps in the road... in fact, he has started to already.

Matt Cain - His rate dropped from 8.41 to 7.99. Not a huge drop, but if the trend continues, it will be a huge drop worth mentioning.

Cliff Lee - His rate wasn't awesome, but was a solid 8K/9 last time we spoke. It's down to 7.65 and I'm sure the trend will continue. He's never been a huge strikeout pitcher and overall, he's bound to decline. Will the Wladimir Balentien HR turn his season around?

Shaun Marcum - Clearly a fluke to start the year. He dropped from 8.71 to 7. He was never a strikeout guy anyway.

Ben Sheets - Another return to planet earth. It's not 2005 folks. Ben Sheets is what he is. He dropped a full K from 8 to 7, and I wouldn't be surprised if he dropped further towards 6.65, which he maintained last year and the year before.

Jair Jurrjens - He dropped from 7.5 to 6.5K/9. The strikeout pitch wasn't the only pitch he was using to get batters out. His component ERA is 1.86. He's looking like the real deal. Who needs Edgar Renteria anyway?


New additions...

Chad Billingsley - He had a series of games where he struck out 41 batters in 23 innings. That will do the trick. He's currently ranked #1 overall in K rate but isn't helping much in the ERA or WHIP department. Honestly, he's not pitching that well, but he's striking batters out. We tabbed him as someone to avoid because we thought his ERA would rise this year, which it has. His strikeouts however, are an awesome 13/9 for the time being.

Edinson Volquez - His K rate last year was close to 8/9. This year he's got a 1.23 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP to go along with the strikeouts. Edinson's 10/9 K ratio ranks 4th among starting pitchers. Pitchers coming from the AL to Cincinatti know something we don't (Harang, Arroyo). I think he's the real deal.

Josh Beckett - It was only a matter of time before he showed up here. He's the ace on many a fantasy team.

Randy Johnson - Yes, he's still here. His ERA and WHIP are garbage now but he still strikes people out. He'll be on the DL before we know it, but he's serviceable when pitching against weak division rivals like the Giants and Padres.

CC Sabathia - He had quite the two game span after bombing the first 5. He struck out 20 batters over two games to claim a spot on the K/9 list. He currently ranks 8th, but I'd expect a dropoff. He's never had a high K rate, but 250 innings with an above-average K rate will get you 200 K's.

Chris Young - My man. Ranked 15th with an 8.57 K/9 rate. He's starting to pitch better and I'd buy low if the opportunity is still there.

Felix Hernandez - Welcome, Felix. He's checking out in all facets of his game and his K ate is ranked 19th. It's not surprising to see him on this list. The bigger questions is how high on this list can he go?

Micah Owings - If only there was an offensive roster spot for pitchers. A 2-run pinch hit homer? Give me a break. I digress. His 3.48 ERA is for real and his K rate is slightly above 8, and he looks to be for real. What a staff they've got going on in Arizona.

Scott Baker - He's creeping up on 8K/9. He's not known to be a strikeout guy, so let's see where he takes us. His ERA should drop a bit and he makes a decent addition if he's on the wire.

Adenhart Feels The Heat

Nick Adenhart made his Major League debut on Thursday night and possibly was a little overwhelmed by it.  

Having no problems retiring the side in the first inning with two ground outs and a fly ball to right, Adenhart experienced some real major league turbulence.  

After getting Frank Thomas to start out inning number two with a quick groundout, he gave up a single to Emil Brown to right.  

Then the wheels came off. 

Adenhart walked Jack Cust on four pitches, Bobby Crosby on five to load the bases, threw one ball to Jack Hannahan before uncorking a wild pitch that scored Brown, promptly threw two more balls to load the bases again, walked Mike Sweeney on five to bring in another run, then gave up a single to Kurt Suzuki for two more runs before getting out of the inning. 

Ouch.  That was tiring for even you and me.

Coming out to redeem himself in the third, he walked Thomas before giving up a single to Brown to quickly end his anticipated debut.

Dang it!  Thats not what we were looking for!  

Mike Scioscia had already said that he would "probably" make three starts before returning to the minors, but with control problems being his main issue coming in, it looks like much more seasoning is necessary for young Nick Adenhart before they think about bringing him back up after this brief stint.

Oh well, hopefully he still gets those other two starts to make amends.  

Maybe, the overwhelming feeling he got tonight was due to the fact that he was turning just four years old when one of the hitters he faced was in his first big league season.  Frank "The Big Hurt" Thomas of course.  

Haha!  Sorry, I just loved that stat.

 

Mail Bag

Mike Writes...

Love your blog. First one I check every day. Anyway, I'm in a bit of turmoil over a possible trade.

League info: 18(!) team mixed sorta keeper league (with complicated keeper rules I won't get into). Head to head, weekly changes.

Scoring:

H, R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, SLG
IP, W, L, CG, SV, HLD, K, ERA, WHIP

My team:

C - Chris Snyder
1B - Todd Helton
2B - Brian Roberts
3B - Adrian Beltre
SS - JJ Hardy
OF - Manny Ramirez
OF - Matt Kemp
OF - Jacoby Ellsbury
UTIL - James Loney

SP - Jake Peavy
SP - Hiroki Kuroda
SP - Kevin Millwood
RP - Brian Fuentes
RP - Dan Wheeler
RP - Jonathan Sanchez
P - Greg Smith
P - Armando Galarraga

BN - Milton Bradley
BN - Carlos Quentin
BN - Edwin Encarnacion
BN - Colby Rasmus
BN - Clayton Kershaw
BN - David Price

DL - Rich Harden

Which finally leads to the trade…

I give Brian Roberts and Armando Galarraga for Adam Wainwright and Dan Uggla.

Giving up B Rob would be a pretty big deal, as the B Rob/Ellsbury tandem wins me steals every week. I do like Uggla, and he does provide me with a lot more power and rbi, which I might be lacking. Wainwright looks pretty good this year, even though he is not one of "your guys". I'd like to get your thoughts on him. Do you think I should look to land someone better with Roberts, or is Uggla a worthy replacement? I do have a surplus of outfield talent. Of those, who should I shop out and who should I keep?

Other possibilities I've looked at, but not discussed serious offers for, are James Shields, Justin Verlander, Brad Penny, Zack Grienke, Chad Billingsley, Javier Vazquez, Edinson Volquez, Ervin Santana, and Matt Cain.

Both Gorzelanny and Villanueva are still out there.

Mike,

Thanks for your kind words...

Your team looks good. As far as the deal goes... Uggla's AVG is ugly and Roberts is more valuable overall. I understand you have ample steals and could use some pop, which Ugla provides. I think you could get more for Roberts, but your situation and league depth makes me wonder outside the box on this one. So making that trade wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

Of those pitchers on the list, I'd target Verlander, Billingsley and Cain. I like Greinke, Shields and Volquez just as much, but they will cost too much because they are pitching so well right now.

Don't bother with the likes of Gorzelanny or Villanueva. It is 18 teams, so I can't visualize your waiver wire as clearly.

I'd consider replacing Milwood and Rasmus (there will be others similar to him that come up) with guys like Jo-Jo Reyes, Nick Adenhart, Garrett Olson. Those guys present some upside and with your offense, you have no use for excess OF.

I'd consider packaging Matt Kemp and Hardy for an upgrade at SS.

Add Clement to replace Snyder if at all possible. Clement could be great, if you are in a CBS league where he is C eligible.

If you could get Lincecum or Shields or a top pitcher for Manny, I'd pull the trigger. Guys like Quentin and Bradley and the rest of the crew could adequately fill in your OF on a rotational basis while removing mediocrities like Millwood and Kuroda from your lineup.

Mail Bag

Kevin writes...

I'm in a 5x5, 10 team mixed, non-keeper league. Currently, I am in the middle of the pack awaiting some regression to the mean with regard to ERA and WHIP, two unforeseen areas of weakness. In planning for the summer, though, I'd really love to have a contingency plan at SS for the oft-injured Carlos Guillen. I have a mancrush on him but just dont trust him to stay healthy.

Here's my current roster:

C-Soto
C-Towles
1B-D Lee
2B- A Hill
3B- D Wright
SS- Guillen
OF- Braun
OF- C Hart
OF- Pence
OF- C Lee
OF- Markakis
U-Bourn
U-Longoria

P-Vazquez
P-D. Lowe
P-Lincecum
P-Burnett
P-R Johnson
P-Mc Gowan
P-J Sanchez
P-Jenks
P-Capps

Bench- Ian Snell, Victorino

I'd love to make a play for Tulo, and have offered Longoria straight up, as well as Pence + Snell. Any thoughts on who else I should be offering up and/or targeting?

Kevin,

Your team looks pretty solid to me. Hopefully you didn't pull the trigger on adding Tulo for he's possibly out until the All-Star Break.

Your offense is certainly stacked my friend. No worries there. I don't consider Guillen an injury risk after having 550 AB in each of the last 2 seasons.

Your staff is just as solid. Your Toronto pitchers will get better, as McGowan was great last night. With Rolen back, the defense on grounders to the hot corner will only help their BABIP.

Don't make a move.

Pete Billingsley's Minority Report- Week 3

To date I've written about 20 minor league players to keep your eye on. Of those 20 players, 8 have already been called up to the show, with a few even having instant success. My review of these players and what I think your fantasy baseball reaction should be is below.

Max Scherzer - SP - ARI - Wow.... I mean what more can I say? This guy made me buy the MLB.tv package so I could see his debut. In case you were in a coma, he went 4.1 IP’s allowing nothing whatsoever, and adding 7 K’s to his sick debut MLB line. Today the D-Backs moved him into their rotation for a Monday start, lining him up for a 2-start week. I don't care who he pitches against and where, if you own him get him in your lineup. He won't hold up to quite this level all year, nobody can, but ride him while he's hot for the next month then enjoy the quality #2 fantasy SP you got in the 25th round. He is a must get in all Leagues…Bid aggressively if still available.

Garrett Olson - SP - BAL - There really is no great way to follow up writing about Max Scherzer, but Garrett did his thing in his debut. I watched the entire start (as an avid O's fan) and he looked solid. Not a #1 or #2, but a great #3 long term. He has a great demeanor and wasn't fazed by a small strike zone. He lasted 6 and 2/3, struck out 6 but did allow 4 hits and 5 walks. He was able to get out of the jams, and only yielded two runs. He can be a solid starter for the O's and has been very successful in his Minor League career. I can see him sticking in the rotation and carrying a low 4.00 ERA and around 7 K/9. I think he's a solid pickup as the O's play great defense and have a bullpen that is exceeding expectations. In AL-Only leagues he's a must get, mixed leagues he can be picked up, but bid normally and expect a good match up type starter.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia- C/DH/1B - TEX - So far he's played two games and sat last night against KC while his teammates scored 11 runs, with Gerald Laird hitting a 2-run homer. In his 2 starts he has struck out 3 times and has hits in both games. I think it’s as simple as this: If he is C eligible in your league pick him up if you need C help, and if he isn't, then he's likely not worth your time. He has some pop and hitting in Arlington will help, but his average will be low and unless Laird slumps he's not going to get consistent AB's.

Wladimir Balentien - RF/DH - SEA - He had a great debut last night with a 3-run home run, and with Seattle sending Brad Wilkerson down to AAA, this prospect has a clear shot at an everyday right field job if he can keep the bat going. Seattle needs a power bat, badly, and with a few good weeks he could work his way into a run producing spot. I think Balentien is worth picking up in Mixed leagues if you need some HR and RBI help. Don't expect an AVG over .270 though.

Jeff Clement - C/DH/1B - SEA - Kenji Johjima owners beware! I am an owner myself so I say this with a bit of sarcasm and fear. I don't see Clement cutting into Johjima's time behind the plate, but I do see him getting regular AB's at DH against right-handed pitchers, while relieving Johjima once a week. Clement has legit power and did hit .370+ in his brief call up last year. If you need C help this is the guy to get if he's eligible there in your league. He has less power potential than Balentien, but should hit for a respectable average. In a full season of 450 or more AB's, I see him hitting .280 with 20 HR’s. If you need a C, again, pick him up!

Adam Lind - OF/DH - TOR - With the recent release of Frank Thomas, Lind has found himself a spot in the Blue Jay lineup. He hasn't exactly taken advantage of it so far, however. He got his first hit last night and is just 1/13 so far. He hasn't struck out too much so far so I bet he comes around if given the opportunity. He has a major league ready bat, but he doesn't profile to be much more than a 1st year Casey Kotchman (non-Mono version). I recommend monitoring his progress and would move to pick him up if you see a hit streak or two in his next few games.

Luke Hochevar - SP - KC Luke picked up his first Major league victory this past Saturday against Toronto. He finally pitched with confidence on the mound, meaning he pounded the strike zone and didn't “nibble”. Reading his post game interview, Hochevar pretty much said the same himself, "Those are my key points, throw strikes, keep the ball down and get ahead." He did all of those things and deserved the “W.” In the minors he wasn't really a K per Inning guy, so I see him more as a Derek Lowe type, with possibly a higher ceiling. He's a solid SP and KC is putting together a capable team. I'd pick him up after another good start.

Armando Galarraga - SP - DET - Last but not least, Armando Galarraga! I think its fair to say this guy has figured some things out this year. He has been dominant to date between AAA and DET. He has arguably been the best SP on Detroit this year. In 3 starts, he has pitched 18 innings, won 2 games, posted a 1.50 ERA and showcased 13 K’s to just 6 walks. In 30 IP’s between AAA and DET he has allowed only 6 ER’s with 24 K’s. These guys come out of the woodwork every year, get him while you can, ride him while he's hot, then sell high. I like him until he has to get around the league a second and third time. If he can adjust to the updated scouting reports he may just be a keeper all year.

This Week's Roundtable

This week, David Chase at Brock For Broglio, had the honor of dishing out this week's Roundtable topic.

Making trades is an intricate part of fantasy baseball. While we all draft teams we love, injuries and down seasons always prompt us to look around the league towards acquiring players we think would improve our teams. However, there are some common mistakes made by us all that, if avoided, could lead to landing the player(s) you covet.

Check out GOTOS' response, as well as the rest of the Roundtable!

Ervin Is Magic In L.A.

A year after having to spend time in triple-A, Ervin Santana is off to a 5-o start to the season and has been spectacular while doing it.

Santana has gone at least six innings in all of his starts this season and hasn't walked more than three in any of them or struck out less than 3 either.

He's only allowed eleven earned runs in 40 innings to further his early dominance. The home/road splits are also back down to earth. He seems to be a good start regardless of where he is pitching right now. Ride the magic hand while it's dealing.

Kotchman Straight Raking

Casey Kotchman has been on fire all season long. If he is still considered to be flying under the radar, he won't be able to much longer.

Kotchman went 3 for 4 with two doubles Wednesday night against the A's and also knocked in 3 runs. He is now 12 for his last 31 and is going to be batting in the cleanup spot against righties, according to Rotoworld.

Yes, he was dubbed as a GOTOS fave coming into the season. I'm in agreement with a post commenter; if I didn't want this site to progress, I would hope that my leaguemates would never find GOTOS. The info on this site just proves again and again to be that damn good.