We at Greener on the Other Side would like to take this opportunity to thank all of our loyal readers for continuing to come back and read what we have to say.
It is also, at this time, that we take tremendous pride in introducing our newest venture....
WWW.FANTASYPHENOMS.COM IS HERE!!!
We hope you enjoy our expansion, and continue to consume our content. We have one goal, and that is to turn fantasy players, into fantasy champions!
See you there!
-Jason, Brett and the crew at Fantasy Phenoms.
Friday, May 16, 2008
Fantasy Phenoms Is Here!!!
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Wavering on the Wire- 5.15.08
Pedro Feliz – For years with the Giants, he was a useful fantasy player because he basically had eligibility at almost every position, with power to boot. This year, he was signed with Philly to be their everyday third basemen, unfortunately got off to a terrible start. For April he batted .218 with 3 home runs & 10 RBI. Since May 1st though, he’s been hitting .286 with 2 HR's & 6 RBIs. Over the past 4 seasons Feliz has averaged 21 HR's and 83 RBIs, which are respectable numbers from a 3B. Plus, playing in Citizens Bank Park should only help his numbers. So if he’s out their, make a run at him. Recommendation – Pick up in all formats
Daniel Cabrera – Cabrera has been one of those guys who can burn you at any moment. One start he’ll strikeout 12 and the next start he’ll walk 12. His control has been a mess for years, but recently it’s looking like he’s becoming more of a pitcher than a thrower. He’s won 4 of his last 5 decisions including a win over the lethal Red Sox lineup last night. Maybe Leo Mazzone’s teachings are starting to pay dividends. His control still isn’t the best and he’s not going to do wonders for your WHIP, but for spot starts and help in strikeouts, he could be your guy. Recommendation – Pick up in all formats
Ronny Paulino – Since Ryan Doumit has landed himself on the DL with a fractured thumb, Paulino now becomes the primary backstop in
However, considering their injury histories, I have a feeling one or both will go down again. So this is where Boyer jumps in. Like I said, at first glance his stats are nothing special, but if you break it down his 4.18 ERA is really being driven by two or three bad appearances. The rest of the 21 games he played in he has been stellar. He’s striking out over a batter an inning (25/23.2) and more importantly he has only given up 4 walks. So he’ll help you with Whip and Ks and he even can pick up a save or two like he did last night. Recommendation- Pick up in NL Only and Deep Mixed Leagues
Jay Bruce – It’s no secret that Bruce is widely considered one of the top prospects in all of baseball, and so far he’s living up to the hype. He’s batting .366 with 8 HR's, 33 RBI & 7 SB's for AAA-Louisville. Right now he is being blocked by a number of guys on the major league roster, but rumors are flying that he will be up soon. It’s a situation where something has to give for them to give him a shot. That situation might be dealing Ken Griffey Jr. back to
By: Chris Lynch
Contact Sport
Today I'm going to go over some of the usual suspects who have stellar BA's that are supported by their CR. The first list is obvious and though their AVG's might be too good to be true they will not have any problems being at the top of the charts all year long.
The Studs
Chipper Jones: .406 AVG, 90% CR. Absolutely insane. Finishing the year over .350 shouldn't be out of the question at this rate.
Lance Berkman: .393 AVG 88% CR Enfuego. Avg too high to sustain but CR ensures he'll be top of the charts in September.
Furcal, Pujols, V-Mart, Tejada: All have an AVG between .366-.340 and CR's between 88-92%.
The above guys should keep up high AVG's for the foreseeable future.
Next Group are guys who are hitting very well but one might wonder...
Is it for real?
Xavier Nady: .340 BA, 80% CR. Though the CR isn't horrible, it shouldn't be enough to sustain that high of an AVG. Expect a move back down to the norm. Nady is a career .270 hitter. He could better his career AVG but I wouldn't expect a finishing AVG of .300.
Aaron Rowand: .336 BA, 74% CR. This one is easy. Decline to happen. Career .288 AVG. He could still be around his career AVG though. But his contact could use some improvement. Especially to carry at this pace.
Ryan Theriot: .333 BA, 90% CR. Well looky here the career .286 hitter is looking like he can stay above .300. Who doesn't love "The Riot"?
Justin Upton: .326 BA, 71% CR. The rate doesn't sustain the AVG. He should most certainly come back down to Earth a bit. The one thing he does have going for him is that his brother somehow inexplicably is able to hold a higher AVG than his CR supports. Whats with these Uptons anyway? BABIP masters?
Conor Jackson: .325 BA, 92% CR. As you were Conor. You've been on the good side of this list for the last couple of years now. Keep up the good work young man, you're gonna be a star!
Kevin Youklis: .313 BA, 84% CR. Reasonable enough. He might dip to the .285-.290 range but i don't think we'll hear any griping from owners.
Kosuke Fukudome: .312 BA, 81% CR. Should regress a bit, but I have faith in his hitting background to think that he stays in the .290-.300 range.
Ryan Church: .319 BA, 75% CR. Well, this hot item should see a drop in BA. To shop or not to shop? That is the question.
Ian Kinsler: .316 BA, 85% CR. That's my boy blue! Maybe not a .316 hitter all year but the hopes are high for a .285 and up. Right on or more than owners were banking on. Really has taken his leadoff role to heart.
Geovany Soto: .315 BA, 73% CR. Oh, my favorite one so far. I didn't draft him when I wanted to and I'm looking for anything to make me feel better. This is a start. The CR doesn't support the AVG. Small decline ahead. I still should've drafted him when I had the chance. Doh!
Matt Kemp: .313 BA, 73% CR. Not gonna cut it. Drop-off ensuing. Still is kind of a freak at this stat though. Maybe he hung out with the Upton Bros. when he was little.
Casey Kotchman: .309 BA, 93% CR. Yahtzee! We have a winner.
Nate McClouth: .307 BA, 87% CR. Looks like we are here to stay.
Josh Hamilton: .306 BA, 85% CR. Decent chance of keeping it up, though .285-.290 would be more reasonable.
An AVG likely to increase...
Robinson Cano: .188 BA, 89% CR. Beam me up Scotty!
Jose Guillen: .207 BA, 76% CR. Though AVG inevitably has to climb the 76% CR will put a cap on it. .270 this year? He still has to produce to get there though.
Gary Sheffield: .208 BA, 76% CR. A climb? Sure. To the top of the mountain? No.
Carlos Pena: .209 BA, 66% CR. Ohh. Chicks dig the long ball though Carlos.
David Ortiz: .240 BA, 84% CR. Unless the knee is going to ruin the whole season, the AVG should climb up above the knees...or something like that?
Ryan Garko: .231 BA, 85% CR. Scour the wire in case he's there. Numbers shall improve.
Ichiro: .282 BA, 92% CR. .282 is low for this guy. Hold on your ship is about to ascend...quickly.
Delmon Young: .266 BA, 82% CR. With your amount of HR you better improve that AVG. Yes I'm bitter.
Vladimir Guerrero: .271 BA, .84% CR. A rise would be no surprise.
Eric Byrnes: .221 BA, 85% CR. Make sure to pop your ears as you go up.
Ryan Howard: .171 BA, 61% CR. Yes a rise from .171 is certain but any thoughts of this guy not hurting your AVG are fantasies at this point. Man I love when GOTOS is right. Good call Brett and Jay.
Rickie Weeks: .188 BA, 82% CR. Half-way respectable CR. Obviously an incline is on the way, but how much for this streaky hitter? 82% can push him above .260??
Mark Teixeira: .261 BA, 87% CR. AVG will rise. Promise.
Prince Fielder: .241 BA, 83% CR. See Teixeira.
Stephen Drew: .264 BA, 86% CR. Yup, a spike is on the way
Ryan Zimmerman: .239 BA, 81% CR. Don't bail now, a little better days are on the way.
Chris B Young: .238 BA, 70% CR. Apparently this is what you get. Hope you like it.
Mark Reynolds: .230 BA, 61% CR. Ouch! Thus the term sell-high. Well past that point now.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Keppinger Fractures Kneecap
An unfortunate event for GOTOS readers and myself, who had him as my active SS/MI in all 6 of my leagues.
From a medical standpoint... Keppinger could miss 4-6 weeks.
Minority Report – 5/13
Top Prospects
J.A. Happ – SP – PHI
Happ is a 6 foot 5 inch lefty with one heckuva change-up. So far 2008 has been a success, as Happ leads the International league with 55 strikeouts in just 46 innings. His last four starts have seen him pitch 27 innings with 31 strikeouts while allowing just two runs. Happ has been a bit of a hard luck pitcher to date with an 0-4 record while posting a low 2.72 ERA. Happ should be next in line for SP’s in Philadelphia’s system and will earn a shot if he keeps this up. Happ profiles long term as a good #3 SP on a competitive team. He has always been a strikeout per inning type so if he can keep his walks down he’ll have a major league future. He should get a shot after the all-star break if he keeps up his current pace.
Ryan Tucker – SP – FLA
Tucker is young for AA at 21 years-old, but you wouldn’t know it from his starts so far. In eight starts he has a ridiculous 0.97 ERA with 43 strikeouts in 46 innings. Both left-handed and right-handed batters are hitting below .200 against him, and it appears the former first rounder is starting to fulfill his immense upside. His fastball works regularly in the 93-95 range and can touch 98 with late movement. He has a solid change-up and is working on a third pitch. Tucker’s fastball will have some thinking ‘elite closer’ but I think Florida is going to stick with him in the rotation until proven otherwise. Olsen and Miller have a lock on their spots in the Florida rotation but other than them the Marlins are in need of an arm like Tucker. I think he can help in 2008 and wouldn’t be shocked to see him called up after the all-star break. He is a guy to definitely keep your eye on.
Carlos Rosa – SP – KC
Rosa is having a magnificent start to 2008. In eight starts he has managed a 1.20 ERA with 42 strikeouts in 45 innings. Rosa has a .189 batting average against, while allowing just two homeruns. One of KC’s top 3 pitching prospects Carlos was just promoted to AAA and appears likely to contribute to KC’s staff by 2009. If all goes well in AAA Rosa may be a prospect for a September call up, but I don’t see Drayton Moore wasting any Major League eligibility this year.
Daniel McCutchen – SP – NYY
McCutchen is not one of the Yankees' top prospects, and he has already served a 50 game suspension for violating the minor league drug policy. To top it all he didn’t start professionally until after his fifth year at Oklahoma, so he isn’t the youngest prospect in AA (25 to be exact.) With all that against him, the Yankees organization still holds this guy in high regard and he is rewarding them this year. McCutchen has a 2.15 ERA in 46 innings with 43 strikeouts. His BA against is .192 and he has a 4/1 K/BB ratio. The Yankees staff is in shambles, and so far the AAA staff hasn’t faired well in NY. It won’t be long before the Yanks reach into AA and if McCutchen keeps it up he could get a look. He’s not a guy to jump on right away, but playing in front of the usually vaunted Yankees lineup makes McCutchen worth watching.
Blast from the Past
Jason Berken – SP – BAL
Berken was the ace of the Clemson staff as a sophomore until injury struck. He had Tommy John Surgery and has since recovered the top end stuff that had many talking ace in 2004. Berken is a true “pitcher” in the sense that he has knows what he’s doing on the mound. He’s not a thrower and has shown to be pretty durable as a pro. His arm appears more alive this year and it shows in the results: 3.26 ERA 36K 4BB and only 1HR against. Berken’s 36/4 K/BB ratio leads the Eastern League. If his fastball can stay in the 91-94 MPH range, his quality change-up may allow him to be a successful major league starter. He’s worth monitoring for those in deeper dynasty leagues as the O’s are searching for a 5 man rotation for 2008 and beyond.
By: Pete Billingsley
Adenhart Gets Win, Gets Sent Down
Nick Adenhart got his first MLB victory just in the nick of time Monday night against the Pale Hose heroes.
Adenhart concluded his rocky stint in the bigs with a victory and then was promptly sent back to Salt-Lake for some more seasoning to make room for 3,500 clubber John Lackey.
Young Adenharts line read like this: 5.2 IP, 9 HA, 4 ER, 3 BB and a K. And oh yea, the W.
Well hopefully the Salt-Lake seasoning does him good, because catcher of the Pale Hose heroes A.J. Pierzynski had this to say about the 21-year-old hurler, "He's got good stuff and he's got a chance to be pretty good...he got a little wild here and there, but other than that he's got a good curve ball, good changeup and good life on his fastball."
Thats what I'm talkin about A.J.! Three plus pitches and a contending team. I can't wait until next time. I love any pitcher that has good life on a fastball and a solid change.
To be continued...
Zito Continues To Stink
We won't spend much time here. I just thought I'd point out that when pitching in a no-decision is supposed to show signs of improvement then your seriously hurtin and most definetely acting as the most over-paid player in possibly all of sports. Sorry Barry, I truly do miss your Oaktown A days.
Come back anytime now.
Unfortunately thats not going to happen, but for stats sakes, here's Barry's final line for Monday against the Stros'.
6 IP, 7 HA, 3 ER, ONLY 1 BB and 2 K's. He did give up a bomb to Lance Berkman but at this date in time who would'nt.
Go Barry Go!
Clement Hits!
Well, if your anything like me, you've been patiently waiting for any sort of sign that Jeff Clement can indeed help your fantasy team this year.
We got a small glimpse of some wood on ball Monday night. Sweet.
Seriously, thats a big start.
Clement had come into the night hitting a whopping .125 in 32 AB's this year with the big club. It really has been that bad too, Clement had gone 4 of 32 with 15 strikouts to only 6 walks and no extra-base hits. Ouch. Thank goodness for an apparent long leash.
Tonights line read: 2 for 5 with a single, a double and two runs scored.
He finally got that first extra-base hit and only struck out once, though it was in a big spot in the top of ninth, where it could've been him and not Kenji Johjima that tied it up in the ninth with a big fly.
As you can tell I really have wishful thinking for this guy. Nonetheless, we'll take any glimmer of hope and quite frankly I'm happy about it. There will be more to come for us and Clement, stay tuned.
Clement's teammate continued to show his consistently, inconsistent power bat with a two-run bomb in the eighth.
Yes, fellow rookie Wladimir Balentien showed the pop that has him getting regular right field starts for the M's. His two-run shot, was his fourth homer in 46 AB's in his brief stay so far in Seattle. He has also struck out 14 times in those 46 AB's to remind us that he is still very raw, but that kind of power is welcome to any fantasy squad.
Good job "Wha-Lad!"
I know it's pronounced Vlad, but wheres the Berman-esque fun in that?
Monday, May 12, 2008
Kershaw Looming?
Troy over at Daily RotoPickups has some good insight on Clayton Kershaw. Check his stuff out.
Sunday, May 11, 2008
The Closer Report: Setup for Failure
By Paul Shapiro
Since when do closers remove themselves from the closer role? Isn’t that manager’s job? Well, this happened not once, but twice this week. Both Jason Isringhausen and Eric Gagne asked for a “mental break” from their respective team’s closer role.
On Friday, Isringhausen racked up his Major League-leading fifth blown save, a distinction that he shares with Gagne and one that they would both rather not have. After this performance, Isringhausen suggested a meeting that included himself, manager Tony La Russa, pitching coach Dave Duncan and general manager John Mozeliak. During that meeting, Izzy removed himself from the Cardinals’ closer role.
"It needed to be done," he told reporters. "It's a mental break more than anything. … I'm just getting sick of embarrassing myself and letting my team down. … They can't keep sending me out there when I'm pitching the way I'm pitching.
Isringhausen, who actually leads the National League with 11 saves, compared the way he has been pitching to that of “a second grader.” He blew just two saves in 34 chances last season.
So that leaves the ninth inning for setup man-turned-closer, Ryan Franklin. He has two saves in the past week in two chances, but Franklin doesn't have what most experts would call “typical closer stuff.” For now, he is clearly the go-to-guy for saves, but the Cards’ skipped Tony La Russa said Russ Springer would also be considered in save situations. Personally, I like Kyle McClellan. He has thrown 19 1/3 innings, with 16 strikeouts, a 2.79 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.
The truth about the Cards’ closer situation is that once Izzy gets his head back on straight, he’ll be closing games again. This will probably occur by the end of the month.
Now, onto Gagne. This guy cracks me up. Before Brewers’ manager Ned Yost could pull the Canadian from the closer role, Gagne did it himself.
He came into Saturday’s game, in a non-save situation, and coughed up two runs to move his ERA to 6.89. After the game, Gagne said that he no longer wants to be called the Brewers closer.
"I don’t deserve that ninth inning right now,” he told reporters.
Gagne, who signed a one-year, $10 million deal this offseason, is legitimately stealing money from the Brewers.
The Brewers will use a closer-by-committee approach while Gagne tries to work out the kinks. If that means he starts juicing again, then this guy might be able to “save” his career. (I crack myself up sometimes.) Otherwise, look into picking up the likes of Salomon Torres, David Riske, Guillermo Mota, Brian Shouse and Mitch Stetter. There are almost too many names to go around for any of them to have value.
On Sunday, Torres came into the game to protect a 5-2 lead. He got the first two outs, allowed a run and was then removed with two runners on and a left-hander due up. Shouse then picked up the infamous one-out save.
But a save is a save. And, you never know, the Brewers could call up Derrick Turnbow from the Minors.
You know what’s so amazing about all of this? This all happened during a series between, you guessed it, the Cardinals and the Brewers in Milwaukee. Coming into Monday night’s series finale, there have been two blown saves in three games and a loss for both Izzy and Gagne.
Next in line: The closer role is entirely volatile. Here are some setup men to keep an eye on in the upcoming weeks.
Cubs – Carlos Marmol (23 IP, 2 SV, 30 K, 1.17 ERA, 0.70 WHIP)
Braves – Blaine Boyer (21 1/3 IP, 0 SV, 22 K, 4.22 ERA, 0.84 WHIP)
D-backs – Chad Qualls (19 2/3 IP, 1 SV, 20 K, 2.75 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)
Padres – Heath Bell (20 2/3 IP, 0 SV, 14 K, 2.61 ERA, 1.11 WHIP)
Closers of the future: For those of you who want to look into the future, here are four setup guys that should end up with at least 150 saves in their career. These are their career stats coming into Sunday night’s games.
Dodgers – Jonathan Broxton (187 IP, 5 SV, 239 K, 2.89 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)
Yankees – Joba Chamberlain (39 1/3 IP, 1 SV, 51 K, 1.37 ERA, 0.84 WHIP)
Mariners – Brandon Morrow (69 2/3 IP, 0 SV, 73 K, 3.88 ERA, 1.61 WHIP)
Tigers – Joel Zumaya (117 IP, 2 SV, 124 K, 2.62 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)
The Swami Says … I predicted last week that three of the 11 closers without a blown save would do just that – blow a save. I was close. Two closers, Jonathan Papelbon and Troy Percival, blew saves, but Papelbon blew two. That equals three, so I’ll look at that as a moral victory. That leaves nine closers who haven’t yet blown a save this season. Mariano Rivera, Joakim Soria, Brad Lidge and B.J. Ryan still haven’t allowed an earned run. Billy Wagner is in that boat as well, but he blew a save on an unearned run. And I still stand by what I said last week, “Soria will be the last closer remaining without a blown save heading into June.”
Still Getting The Dust Off?
This from Rotoworld....
Though Corey Patterson was supposed to be at the plate, David Ross batted out of order in the ninth inning of an 8-3 loss to the Mets on Sunday.
What is this, Little League? Per MLB rules, Ross has to complete his at-bat to be ruled out, and the outcome of his at-bat is then discarded with no runners allowed to advance. The Mets allowed him to do so, and since he lined out to right there was little harm done. Ross was the batter listed in the order after Patterson, so he was forced to come back to the plate for his 'real' at-bat and Patterson was charged the out. Ross singled after returning to the batter's box. There's almost too many jokes here for us to enjoy. Corey Patterson making outs even when he's not at-bat is just one of them. As if their wasn't already overwhelming evidence that Dusty Baker is a horrible manager, this just adds more fuel to the fire.
Home/Road Splits - Pitchers
While we start guys like Peavy, Santana, Webb and Lincecum (that's right, Lincecum) every week regardless of whom they play against, some pitchers enjoy the confines of their home and others like pitching on the road.
Start 'Em Next Week
Jonathan Sanchez - His ERA on the road is close to 10.00. In friendly San Francisco his ERA is 1.16. Start him next week when he gets the DH-less White Sox.
John Danks - Two starts and both are on the road where John finds his success. Despite on overall 3.18 ERA, Danks' ERA at home is 4.64 while on the road it is 1.47.
John Lannan - Now here's a real testament to risk. Lannan shows a 1.40 road ERA, where he has one start. His one start is against the Mets. However, his struck out 11 Mets in his last outing. Do you play the numbers game or do you play the logic game?
John Maine - He's got one start... against Lannan. Maine has a 2.55 home ERA. Could this be a 1-0 event?
John, I mean Shawn Chacon - After all those Johns it was becoming first nature. Shawn Chacon's road ERA is 2.77, which warrants a start in Texas. Don't bother with him at home though where his ERA is just south of 5.00.
Hiroki Kuroda - He's been awesome this year on the road with a 2.81 ERA. He's in Anaheim where apparently none of their hitters can hit. (See yesterday's article).
Mark Hendrickson - With a 2.57 ERA when not in Miami, he's a good bet in Cincinatti next week where he'll face lefties Dunn, Griffey and Votto.
Sit 'Em Next Week
Nick Blackburn - He's got a 1.66 ERA in 3 home starts but on the road his ERA is at 5.66. Sit him when he plays in Coors next week.
Odalis Perez - He's got two starts next week but both are on the road, where he sports a 4.29 ERA. His ERA at home is 2.66.
Boof Bonser - His home ERA sits pretty at 1.50. Unfortunately he'll be on the road this week in Toronto, where his ERA is over 6.00.
Jon Garland - Despite his great performance against Tampa this week, he's a sit for next week. Garland will be at home in Anaheim where after four starts his ERA is over 6.00. Start him when he pitches on the road though, where his ERA is under 2.00.
Micah Owings - Yes, he's in line for two starts, but both come at home where his ERA sits just below 5.00. If he were on the road I'd recommend him where his 3.57 ERA is much easier on the eye.
Ryan Dempster - Overall his ERA is 2.70 but he doesn't like pitching in Wrigley, where his one start comes next week. His road ERA stands at 0.90, but at home it is 4.30.
Daniel Cabrera - He has one start at home against the Red Sox. His road ERA is 2.17, but at home, where he is next week, his ERA is over 6.00.
Tracking Clement, Balentien
The struggles continued Saturday for the Mariners and young sluggers Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien.
I love that spelling by the way. It's pronounced Vladimir, but if your like me you can pronounce it, Wah-Lad! Signifying the sound the bat makes when he hits one of his towering shots. It's fun, I suggest trying it at home.
Anyway, the two young bucks suffered some more growing pains facing strikeout machine Javier Vazquez. They both struck out in there first two at-bats against Vazquez with Clement being the only one to get a third AB against him and fortunately drew a walk.
Balentien did manage a single in his third AB against the Pale Hose's pen but grounded into a DP in the ninth to conclude his night.
1-4 with 2 k's.
Clement followed up his walk with a fly out to center to conclude his plate trips. At least he hit the ball into the field the last time.
He went 0-3 with 2 k's and a walk.
Well, the K rates aren't pretty but at least it looks like they are going to have a long leash to succeed. The Mariners need to pick it up as a whole and that should help the young guys settle in and start making some more contact. We've still gotta love their futures.
Carry on.
Following Eveland
Dana Eveland seemed to pitch pretty decent on Saturday, but still got tagged for the loss in Arlington.
He gave up a run scoring double in the first and a two run shot in the third, both to Milton Bradley, and was credited with his third loss of the season.
His final line read:
6 IP, 6 HA, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 k on only 90 pitches.
One of his two walks was intentional and the two mistakes he made happened to be against a hot-hitting Bradley...I'm still diggin him.
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Lincecum Is Dominant
Super-star Tim Lincecum pitched a shutdown type of game Saturday against the Phillies. His final line read:
8 IP, 4 HA, 2 ER, 1 BB and 8 K's!
Lincecum only had to throw 105 pitches and was in control the whole way. It didn't hurt that he got about the best run support that you can expect from the Fremont...I mean...San Francisco Giants. He did give up two bombs but other than that it was all him. He hit 97 mph on the gun and struck out the side on eleven pitches in the first.
Stud.
Sunday Pick 'Em
Mike Musch, writer for the Poughkeepsie Journal, has organized a Sunday Pick 'Em amongst several fantasy websites.
Rules:
Player Selection:
Rotating Order on a Weekly Basis
No one player can be selected twice
No player in the Yahoo! Big Board can be selected (essentially the top 50 players).
Scoring system:
Hitters-
1 point for every base (i.e. single=1 point, double=2 point, etc)
1 point for a run
1point for an RBI
1 point for a SB
Pitchers-
3 points for W
5 points for CG
3 points for SV
1 point for 2IP
-1 point for ER
1 point for K
Here is who get selected and the order they were selected in (both pitcher and hitter are selected at the same time):
Brett Greenfield, Greener on the Other Side- Jair Jurrjens and Adrian Gonzalez
To see who everyone else picked, view the rest of the article here.
Home/Road Splits - Hitters
While there are certain sluggers you start each week regardless of how many games they play or whom they are against, there are some players who hit much better at home or on the road.
Players To Start This Week
Justin Upton - Upton's .240 road AVG is awful but he bats .417 at home where he has 7 games next week.
Alex Rios - He's been slumping, but is nobody to take out of your lineup. He's batting .340 on the road this year with 11 RBI and 5 SB. He gets 7 road games next week.
Kosuke Fukudome - He's batting nearly .500 in Wrigley this year and he'll be there all week.
Fred Lewis - He's in SF all week and he bats .400 there. He makes a good spot start.
Mark DeRosa - He has 15 RBI and a .375 AVG in Wrigley and he'll join teammate Kosuke there for all of his games.
Adrian Gonzalez - How can you argue with .387 with 7 homers and 18 RBI away from Petco? Teammates Giles and Kouzmanoff make good starts next week as well.
Xavier Nady - He's got 6 on the road next week and bats .391 outside of Pittsburgh. Three homers and 18 RBI add to his stats away from home and make him a good start.
Players To Bench This Week
Christian Guzman - Not only have 11 of his 15 RBI come at home, but he bats .348 in Washington. His .270 road average is quite empty and he's got 7 on the road next week.
Hunter Pence - Batting .220 on the road with no homers doesn't bode well with 7 outside of Houston.
Felipe Lopez - 11 of his 12 RBI have come in Washington. Like teammate Guzman, he's one to avoid with all his games on the road next week.
Jason Bay - Six road games don't look good for Jason as he's got one homer, 3 RBI and a .230 AVG when he's not playing at home.
Carlos Quentin - Yeah he's crushing right now, but he bats 100 pts higher at home than on the road. His .220 road AVG is unlikely to help you out next week when he packs his bags for seven.
Jayson Werth - He bats below the Mendoza Line at home, where he'll play all of his games next week.
Anaheim Angels - Kotchman, Aybar, Guerrero and Matthews all hit significantly better on the road than at home. Unfortunately all of their games next week come on the road.
Friday, May 9, 2008
Minority Report – May 7, 2008
David Price – SP – TB
Carlos Carrasco – SP – PHI
By: Pete Billingsley
D-Cab Tempts Again
Daniel Cabrera had an enticing fantasy line on Thursday night.
9 IP, 3 HA, 1 ER, 1BB, 7 K and a 18/2 GB/FB rate.
One walk! Wow! His previous start he had seven walks!
Here's what coach Dave Trembley had to say after the game, as reported by CBS Sportsline, "Thats the best I've seen him pitch...In previous times, he'd spin out of control and he doesn't do it anymore. He keeps his focus. He Keeps his poise. He gets himself back in rythm. He goes back to pitching. He's not a thrower. Thats the big difference."
Maybe thats the case, but he still sports that horrible K/BB rate of 1.4/1 in 33.1 IP this year.
He has chewed up some innings and on occasion looks like he can control his ball a little bit, but we're gonna need to see some consistency before anything gets a little too carried away here.
Nonetheless, I guess he still merits a little attention.
More Chances For Clement, Balentien
Two obstacles for playing time are currently being avoided by Seattle youngsters Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien.
CBS.Sportsline reported that Brad Wilkerson was given his unconditional release Thursday and Jose Vidro missed his third straight game with back spasms.
This is just the kind of action fantasy fanatics like ourselves want to see when we need an uninterrupted view of potential stars.
Even though he was sent to the minors, I thought Wilkerson might be one of the few threats to Balentien's playing time had the young guy struggled and Wilkerson somehow get hot in Tacoma.
Worry no more 'bout that I guess.
Now it would be super-sub Willie Bloomquist, not so spring chicken with a whack back Jose Vidro or...hahaha... Miguel Cairo taking any sort of AB's from the two youngsters.
Sweeet...barring the infamous player-to-be-named-later we've got some AB's ahead of us folks. Too bad this lineup couldn't produce a run in a charity softball event, but hey at least there's gonna be some hacks taken. Game on.
Thursday, May 8, 2008
BABIP, BABIP, BABIP... That's All Folks!
I ventured down the BABIP highway a few months ago and came to this conclusion.
While BABIP isn't my favorite nor the most telling of sabermatric stats, it is upon request that I share my insight on this year's BABIP's to date.
BABIP can be defined as Batting Average on Balls In Play. This is a measure of the number of batted balls that safely fall in for a hit (not including home runs). A typical BABIP is about .290 for a pitcher. Today we'll examine certain pitchers who strayed from the mean in 2007.
While the mean is typically .290, 65% of starting pitchers in 2007 has a BABIP between .270 and .310. Those guys aren't far off the average. However, 35% of pitchers were.
So, on to 2008 where we are nearly six weeks into the season.
The ten lowest BABIP through May 7th (BIPA if you are using ESPN)
10. Greg Smith - .211
9. Scott Olsen - .198
8. Ben Sheets - .196
7. Ryan Dempster - .187
6. Shaun Marcum - .183
5. Cliff Lee - .182
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka - .176
3. Armando Galarraga - .174
2. Erik Bedard - .169
1. Gavin Floyd - .160 (Lowest BABIP in the majors)
In analyzing these 10 pitchers, I can't come to grips with simply using BABIP as a predictor of their success or achievements thus far. I have to incorporate some DIPS or ERC (you can expect an ERC article early next week).
Of those 10, Lee, Galarraga and Sheets seem the likeliest to keep their numbers down as their BABIP increases because their other sabermetric stats check out some.
On the other hand, Olsen, Matsuzaka, Bedard and Floyd have rather high ERC and/or DIPS ratios as of now, leading me to believe that they are getting quite lucky so far in 2008.
Simply put, if you believe in and trust sabermetrics like I do, I'd be very quick to trade Olsen, Bedard, Daisuke and Floyd. Again, don't get me wrong. Bedard and Daisuke are 200 K guys and all, but they are clearly set up for a regression in the near future.
Floyd could have issues similar to Chris Young, where he sports a low BABIP throughout the entire year.
Maybe some of the pitchers with high BABIP's below may give you some ideas as to whom to target in exchange.
The ten highest BABIP through May 7th
1. Andrew Miller - .397
2. Bronson Arroyo - .382
3. Chris Sampson - .377
4. Phil Hughes - .376
5. Dustin Mosely - .369
6. Manny Parra - .364
7. CC Sabathia - .363
8. Chad Billingsley - .345
9. Ublando Jimenez - .345
10. Ian Snell - .341
Of this crew, its likely that you weren't counting much on the Arroyo, Sampson, Mosely.
Its possible you drafted and hoped that guys like Miller, Parra, Jimenez would pan out.
Its likely that you are frustrated with Sabathia, Snell, Hughes and Billingsley.
Correct me if I'm wrong.
If you are on the same page as me thus far, then rejoice in the following: Billingsley, Sabathia and Snell are the 3 from this list most likely to benefit from a lower BABIP.
While every pitcher benefits from a lower BABIP, most pitchers with high BABIP are pitching terribly. It is the few outliers that we seek in efforts of explaining why they've been pitching poorly.
Billingsley, Sabathia and Snell all fall into that category. CC and Snell sport DIPS in the mid 4.00's and Billingsley is at 3.50. That shows me that they've been unlucky and should some of those hits stop falling in, they should right the ship.
The rest of that gang either has DIPS/ERC above 5.00 or is nobody you want to waste your time on in 2008.
Stargazing In The Great Northwest
It's been a little over a week since Seattle called up possible stars, Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentin, let's see what they've been able to do with their oppurtunity in this small amount of time.
Clement is struggling. He is 3 for 23, 11 K, 3 BB, 0 RBI and no extra-base hits.
Perhaps he is feeling a little more pressure having to bat mostly fifth, sixth and sometimes seventh in a terribly sputtering lineup. He's 0 for 9 at home too.
Maybe if he got a little more time BEHIND the plate, he could take his mind off of being AT the plate. Two appearances at catcher opposed to six at DH. Thats pretty unlikely though with his average catching skills and Kenji sittin back there.
Hopefully Coach McLaren wants to see him produce just as bad we do and doesn't shy away from using this home-run hitting backstop from Southern Cal. Most of us could use a little more pop at the catcher position.
Balentien is doing a little better than Clement and has a better shot at holdin down a fielding postion too.
He is 7 for 28, 2 HR, 1 double, 6 RBI and three multi-hit games.
He has struck out eight times and walked none though in what has been his weakness so far in his young career.
Balentien has great power, with a record in the minors to prove it, so I could see him getting a pretty long leash to play right field and swing away for a while longer, especially with Wilkerson getting sent down to the minors.
Hopefully the stars can align over the Northwest soon, so the Mariners can get rollin and we can get a better look at our much desired fantasy stars.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Our Boys -- To Steer Clear Of
Back in March we recommended some players to target and others to avoid. A few weeks ago I updated how our recommendations were doing and today I'm going to update how our "guys to avoid" are doing.
John Lackey - Been on the DL all year.
Dontrelle Willis - Five total innings, been on the DL all year.
Barry Zito - 0-6, 7.20 ERA, 1.95 WHIP. He needed help from teammates in carrying his large contract from the dugout to the pen.
Aaron Harang - 1-5, 3.09 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, on pace for over 200K's.
Dan Haren - 4-1, 3.12 ERA, 0.99 WHIP.
Roy Oswalt - 3-3, 5.57 ERA, 1.55 WHIP.
Scott Kazmir - 4 innings pitched, 6.75 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, been on DL most of the year.
Carlos Zambrano - 5-1, 1.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, on pace for 186 K's and 270 innings.
Gil Meche - 2-4, 5.98 ERA, 1.52 WHIP.
Vernon Wells - .281 - 19 runs - 4 HR - 22 RBI - 1 SB
Aaron Rowand - .336 - 12 - 3 - 15 - 0
Melky Cabrera - .280 - 16 - 6 - 17 - 3
Jeremy Hermida - .299 - 12 - 2 - 13 - 0
Matt Kemp - .330 - 19 - 3 - 24 - 9
Fausto Carmona - 3-1, 2.95 ERA, 1.79 WHIP
Jeremy Guthrie - 1-3, 4.06 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Scott Olsen - 4-1, 2.22 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
Bronson Arroyo - 1-4, 8.63 ERA, 1.95 WHIP
BJ Upton - .293 - 18 - 3 - 23 - 5
Noah Lowry - DL, has yet to pitch in 2008.
Clay Buchholz - 2-2, 3.71 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, K per inning.
El Duque - DL, has yet to pitch in 2008.
Rick Ankiel - .277 - 21 - 6 - 18 - 0
Troy Glaus - .228 - 9 -1 - 21 - 0
Scott Rolen - .257 - 3 -1 - 6 -1 - Spent much time on the DL so far.
Analysis
As you know, this list was not a list of people who would not be useful in 2008. This was a list of people who were recommended to avoid because it was thought that through our research they would have worse years than they had in 2007.
Some of these players I will defend my stance on while others I will pull a 180 on.
I seem to be pretty on target and will stay the course with my opinion on the following players from here on out...
Lackey, Zito, Willis, Oswalt, Kazmir, Meche, Wells, Rowand, Cabrera, Hermida, Carmona, Guthrie, Arroyo, Upton, Lowry, El Duque, Ankiel, Glaus, Rolen.
Carmona leads the league in walks and has been one of the luckiest pitchers as his WHIP is close to 2.00. He should finish with an ERA over 4.00 easily.
While Rowand, Wells, Cabrera, Hermida, and Upton are not playing poorly, they certainly aren't living up to the expectations of their owners in relation to where they were likely drafted.
Aaron Rowand's AVG of .336 is all but guaranteed to drop as his contact rate has been in the high 60's to low 70's all year long.
Upton is satisfying owners but his new lineup spot is giving him more RBI and less SB. He's also no longer eligible at 2b in most leagues, limiting his value in that sense. He will not have been worth the second round pick some year's end.
Ironically, Hermida's AVG is still close to .300, much like it was in 2007. Our research suggested a significant drop in his AVG due to a very low contact rate. He again has a 77% CR. There are always a few exceptions to the contact rate rule, but very few. The only names who annually sport low CR yet have high batting AVG are Holliday, Guerrero, Miguel Cabrera and Manny Ramirez. They are all similar in that they swing at everything but when they make contact the ball is hit a lot harder and most go for line drives.
Hermida doesn't seem to fit that prototype, so I still expect a lower AVG to come.
Melky Cabrera seems to be doing alright, but I'm still not sold.
I'm surprised to see the following...
Scott Olsen pitching so well. Last year we know he was awful, but nothing pointed to such a rebound. I never discounted his talent, but didn't see this coming. I'm still not sold and wouldn't go trading for him, but I wouldn't be surprised if he continues this success since he's young and has shown talent in the past.
I stand my ground regarding...
Dan Haren, Aaron Harang, and Carlos Zambrano. I admit right now that of the 25 players not to target, Haren, Lackey and Harang were my three ballsiest picks and regardless of how they do from here on in, I will stand by that statement. They were all #1 SP studs last year.
Harang could strikeout 200+ again and Haren could have an ERA around 3.50. However, their wear and tear as per the 3500 Club still make me weary. I also realize that they could hit the wall in 2009 as well. So, don't be surprised if these two have solid years as it was quite risky for me to go against their success. If they do go down you can thank me like you did for John Lackey, who was equally as risky a call to go against in March.
Carlos Zambrano is an injury waiting to happen. Just wait.
I pull a 180 on...
I will pull a 180 on ONE player out of the 25 to avoid. That player is Matt Kemp.
He's on pace for 45 SB, which is over 30 more than his AVG in the minors. So, admittedly that should be a surprise to all.
He moved up a lot in the lineup which is a big difference from sharing time (Pierre, Jones, Kemp, Ethier) as it appeared would be likely in March. With additional AB and extended PT, he's on pace for 93 runs and 117 RBI.
His 73% CR from last year made me think his .340 AVG would drove below .290. Again, he has a .330 AVG and a 73% CR.
While Hermida doesn't fit the bill of a Holliday, Guerrero, Cabrera or Manny... Kemp does.
Kemp could be the new version of that foursome as a guy who makes little contact, but hits the ball hard and hits a lot of line drives in the process.
If Kemp continues this pace, he will be a second round pick in 2008 or even a trendy late first rounder.
I wouldn't go mortgaging the farm for him nor would I trade more proven talent for him, but he's looking like a great bet from here on in.
How are your teams doing with/without this group of players?
What are your thoughts on these 25 when posted in March? Now?
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